{"wallet":"0xc90b20dd4ccd4d1f6c0a2182b8b1cf9526707190","displayName":"dennycloud","pseudonym":"Broken-Consensus","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":1501.17,"totalPnl":-349.56,"realizedPnl":479.72,"unrealizedPnl":-829.28,"winRate":0.068,"openPositions":234,"resolvedBets":766,"uniqueMarkets":734},"calibration":61,"profitability":0,"consistency":100,"discipline":99,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":91,"trustScore":33,"trustGrade":"F","trustTier":"DANGER","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":766,"description":"F/33 [CI95: F→F, 32-34] (766 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":32,"scoreHigh":34,"gradeLow":"INS","gradeHigh":"INS","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":true}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.09090030581039685,"totalBets":654,"correctBets":28,"actualRate":0.04281345565749235,"expectedRate":0.09090030581039685,"error":0.048086850152904495},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.14912,"totalBets":10,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.2,"expectedRate":0.14912,"error":0.05088000000000001},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2600214285714285,"totalBets":28,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.07142857142857142,"expectedRate":0.2600214285714285,"error":0.1885928571428571},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.37155999999999995,"totalBets":20,"correctBets":12,"actualRate":0.6,"expectedRate":0.37155999999999995,"error":0.22844000000000003},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.45405999999999996,"totalBets":10,"correctBets":6,"actualRate":0.6,"expectedRate":0.45405999999999996,"error":0.14594000000000001},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5,"totalBets":44,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.045454545454545456,"expectedRate":0.5,"error":0.45454545454545453}],"brierScore":0.0679,"calibrationError":0.0826,"resolvedBets":766,"overconfidenceBias":0.0655,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":52,"luck":70,"edge":-53.96},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.0168,"resolution":0.0119,"uncertainty":0.0633},"brierSkillScore":-0.0726,"logLoss":0.2543,"logLossSkill":-0.0248,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xc90b20dd4ccd4d1f6c0a2182b8b1cf9526707190","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1775807093,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-10","walletAgeDays":29,"totalTransactions":2938,"uniqueCounterparties":30,"inboundTxCount":938,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1993,"totalUsdcIn":11015.29,"totalUsdcOut":5140,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":9,"contractInteractions":938,"botScore":100,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.05,"medianTxIntervalSec":4,"burstTxCount":494,"provenanceScore":63,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Young wallet: only 29 days old","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Bot-like behavior detected: 494 burst txs, median interval 4s"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2938 txs","Significant USDC flow: $16,155","Diverse trading network: 30 counterparties"],"fetchedAt":"2026-05-09T09:34:10.121Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":6224.85,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xc90b20dd4ccd4d1f6c0a2182b8b1cf9526707190","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":0,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":5140,"withdrawalTxCount":0,"largestWithdrawal":0,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-10","fetchedAt":"2026-05-09T09:34:09.423Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 29 days, 2938 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 100/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $5,140 out across 0 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-10.","3100 total trades across 734 markets.","766 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 8.3% — excellent.","Skill: 52/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 70/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -7.3% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.0168 RES=0.0119 UNC=0.0633.","Log loss: 0.2543 (skill: -2.5% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Penny-lottery strategy: 85% of bets at sub-$0.10 — score penalized by 30 pts","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Net loss: -$350 total PnL","Low win rate: 7%","PnL divergence: $6225 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows","On-chain: bot-like trading patterns detected (bot score: 100)","young_wallet: Wallet is only 29 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)"],"greenFlags":["Strong Brier score: 0.0679","Strong live edge: 234 open positions trending profitable","Well-diversified: 734 unique markets","On-chain: diverse counterparty network"],"scoredAt":"2026-05-09T09:34:10.132Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":false,"ageFactor":0,"reason":"Wallet is only 29 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)","ageDaysUsed":29}}