{"wallet":"0xc92acbb78ae89d88f2db02ba037b3cec023ab360","displayName":"jones26","pseudonym":"Bony-Aunt","raw":{"totalTrades":145,"totalVolume":409.62,"totalPnl":-434.25,"realizedPnl":22.48,"unrealizedPnl":-456.73,"winRate":0.032,"openPositions":6,"resolvedBets":190,"uniqueMarkets":133},"calibration":18,"profitability":0,"consistency":100,"discipline":85,"sampleSize":88,"liveEdge":55,"trustScore":48,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"medium","margin":8,"resolvedBets":190,"description":"D/48 ± 8 (medium confidence, 190 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.06993448275862071,"totalBets":58,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.06993448275862071,"error":0.06993448275862071},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.1485529411764706,"totalBets":34,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.1485529411764706,"error":0.1485529411764706},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.24255000000000002,"totalBets":28,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.07142857142857142,"expectedRate":0.24255000000000002,"error":0.1711214285714286},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3257666666666667,"totalBets":24,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3257666666666667,"error":0.3257666666666667},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4549,"totalBets":8,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4549,"error":0.4549},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5399666666666667,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.3333333333333333,"expectedRate":0.5399666666666667,"error":0.2066333333333334},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.64005,"totalBets":8,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.25,"expectedRate":0.64005,"error":0.39005},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.74005,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.74005,"error":0.74005},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8301000000000001,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8301000000000001,"error":0.8301000000000001},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9561111111111111,"totalBets":18,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9561111111111111,"error":0.9561111111111111}],"brierScore":0.1704,"calibrationError":0.2713,"resolvedBets":190,"overconfidenceBias":0.2713,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":28.4,"luck":26.6,"edge":-26.13},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.145,"resolution":0.0059,"uncertainty":0.0306},"brierSkillScore":-4.572,"logLoss":0.6142,"logLossSkill":-3.3809,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xc92acbb78ae89d88f2db02ba037b3cec023ab360","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1769608603,"firstTxDate":"2026-01-28","walletAgeDays":81,"totalTransactions":190,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":189,"totalUsdcIn":507.65,"totalUsdcOut":400.66,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":33,"provenanceGrade":"D","flags":["Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:39:12.330Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":541.24,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xc92acbb78ae89d88f2db02ba037b3cec023ab360","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":157.51,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":21,"largestWithdrawal":16.2,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-01-30","fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:39:13.326Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 81 days, 190 txs, provenance grade D. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $158 in / $0 out across 21 withdrawal tx since 2026-01-30.","145 total trades across 133 markets.","190 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 27.1% — needs improvement.","Skill: 28/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 27/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -457.2% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.1450 RES=0.0059 UNC=0.0306.","Log loss: 0.6142 (skill: -338.1% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.271","Brier Skill Score: -457.2% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Net loss: -$434 total PnL","Low win rate: 3%","PnL divergence: $541 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows"],"greenFlags":["Strong Brier score: 0.1704","Well-diversified: 133 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T03:39:13.326Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}