{"wallet":"0xc939ebfe22aa9843ab559321d7efef06b82b575a","displayName":"mfdwj","pseudonym":"Exotic-Quotation-Walker","raw":{"totalTrades":1503,"totalVolume":3996.85,"totalPnl":80.75,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":80.75,"winRate":0,"openPositions":4,"resolvedBets":256,"uniqueMarkets":282},"calibration":9,"profitability":44,"consistency":67,"discipline":86,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":100,"trustScore":55,"trustGrade":"C","trustTier":"DEVELOPING","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":256,"description":"C/55 ± 3 (high confidence, 256 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.010000000000000009,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.010000000000000009,"error":0.010000000000000009},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.13837402279756053,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.13837402279756053,"error":0.13837402279756053},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.26527173482686933,"totalBets":10,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.26527173482686933,"error":0.26527173482686933},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3541480250369503,"totalBets":18,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3541480250369503,"error":0.3541480250369503},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.458244062961641,"totalBets":29,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.458244062961641,"error":0.458244062961641},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5526488073976349,"totalBets":39,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5526488073976349,"error":0.5526488073976349},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6495209182186016,"totalBets":57,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6495209182186016,"error":0.6495209182186016},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7424669471147634,"totalBets":47,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7424669471147634,"error":0.7424669471147634},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8455891984376511,"totalBets":32,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8455891984376511,"error":0.8455891984376511},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9373114691598546,"totalBets":17,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9373114691598546,"error":0.9373114691598546}],"brierScore":0.426,"calibrationError":0.6235,"resolvedBets":256,"overconfidenceBias":0.6235,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":16.2,"edge":-48.58},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.4252,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.7038,"logLoss":1.1501,"logLossSkill":-144.4431,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":1.8,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":2}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xc939ebfe22aa9843ab559321d7efef06b82b575a","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1776304328,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-16","walletAgeDays":4,"totalTransactions":2039,"uniqueCounterparties":2,"inboundTxCount":39,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":4694.12,"totalUsdcOut":4215.74,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":39,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":80,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.97,"medianTxIntervalSec":3128,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":38,"provenanceGrade":"D","flags":["Very new wallet: 4 days old — possible sybil","Limited counterparties: only 2 unique addresses","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Wash trading signal: 97% of txs with single counterparty"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2039 txs","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:14:44.020Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":397.63,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xc939ebfe22aa9843ab559321d7efef06b82b575a","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":2907.19,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":112,"largestWithdrawal":134.34,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-17","fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:14:43.817Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 4 days, 2039 txs, provenance grade D. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 80/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $2,907 in / $0 out across 112 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-17.","1503 total trades across 282 markets.","256 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 62.4% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 16/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -70.4% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.4252 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 1.1501 (skill: -14444.3% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 1.8 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Weak Brier score: 0.426","Overconfidence bias: 0.624","Brier Skill Score: -70.4% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Low win rate: 0%","On-chain: wallet only 4 days old on Polygon","On-chain: wash trading signal — 97% of txs with single counterparty"],"greenFlags":["Strong live edge: 4 open positions trending profitable","Net profitable: +$81 total PnL","Well-diversified: 282 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T03:14:47.233Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}