{"wallet":"0xca340c3ea64239115bc0c233f51c821f0969706a","displayName":"Ultimate-Baggy-Porpoise","pseudonym":"Ultimate-Baggy-Porpoise","raw":{"totalTrades":249,"totalVolume":297.69,"totalPnl":-1.77,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":-1.77,"winRate":0,"openPositions":2,"resolvedBets":18,"uniqueMarkets":53},"calibration":60,"profitability":39,"consistency":40,"discipline":75,"sampleSize":40,"liveEdge":0,"trustScore":40,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"very_low","margin":25,"resolvedBets":18,"description":"D/40 ± 25 (very_low confidence, 18 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2819666350616164,"totalBets":3,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.2819666350616164,"error":0.2819666350616164},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.32637129843975987,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.32637129843975987,"error":0.32637129843975987},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.444373054102902,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.444373054102902,"error":0.444373054102902},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5345579375470613,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5345579375470613,"error":0.5345579375470613},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6,"error":0.6}],"brierScore":0.1869,"calibrationError":0.4198,"resolvedBets":18,"overconfidenceBias":0.4198,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":9.6,"luck":21.1,"edge":-116.67},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.1862,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":0.2525,"logLoss":0.5608,"logLossSkill":-69.9281,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0.5,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":1}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xca340c3ea64239115bc0c233f51c821f0969706a","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1776575498,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-19","walletAgeDays":0,"totalTransactions":373,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":373,"totalUsdcIn":155.98,"totalUsdcOut":153.61,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":1,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":28,"provenanceGrade":"D","flags":["Very new wallet: 0 days old — possible sybil","Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Active on-chain: 373 txs","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T02:07:32.238Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":4.14,"pnlVerified":true},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 0 days, 373 txs, provenance grade D. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","249 total trades across 53 markets.","18 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 42.0% — needs improvement.","Skill: 10/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 21/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: 25.3% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.1862 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.5608 (skill: -6992.8% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 0.5 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.420","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Low win rate: 0%","On-chain: wallet only 0 days old on Polygon"],"greenFlags":["Strong Brier score: 0.1869","Brier Skill Score: 25.3% better than naive baseline","Well-diversified: 53 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T02:07:32.407Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}