{"wallet":"0xcc4dcf9b4d2db46745a03a7e06127eba8b5aaed9","displayName":"Advanced-Portfolio","pseudonym":"Advanced-Portfolio","raw":{"totalTrades":230,"totalVolume":3769.81,"totalPnl":-41.51,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":-41.51,"winRate":0.085,"openPositions":16,"resolvedBets":82,"uniqueMarkets":136},"calibration":23,"profitability":38,"consistency":65,"discipline":86,"sampleSize":75,"liveEdge":36,"trustScore":46,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"medium","margin":8,"resolvedBets":82,"description":"D/46 ± 8 (medium confidence, 82 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.03637987113247489,"totalBets":29,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.034482758620689655,"expectedRate":0.03637987113247489,"error":0.0018971125117852386},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.14152153806044487,"totalBets":14,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.14285714285714285,"expectedRate":0.14152153806044487,"error":0.0013356047966979756},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.24826523115306673,"totalBets":9,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.24826523115306673,"error":0.24826523115306673},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3575531120069007,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.16666666666666666,"expectedRate":0.3575531120069007,"error":0.19088644534023405},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.44410118058515147,"totalBets":5,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.2,"expectedRate":0.44410118058515147,"error":0.24410118058515146},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5496415662848301,"totalBets":3,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.3333333333333333,"expectedRate":0.5496415662848301,"error":0.21630823295149676},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6203333072703021,"totalBets":3,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6203333072703021,"error":0.6203333072703021},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7583247726164135,"totalBets":3,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7583247726164135,"error":0.7583247726164135},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8179188207782047,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8179188207782047,"error":0.8179188207782047},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9494691785806275,"totalBets":8,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.125,"expectedRate":0.9494691785806275,"error":0.8244691785806275}],"brierScore":0.2046,"calibrationError":0.2157,"resolvedBets":82,"overconfidenceBias":0.2153,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":35.2,"luck":100,"edge":-1.71},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.1325,"resolution":0.0067,"uncertainty":0.0781},"brierSkillScore":-1.621,"logLoss":0.6883,"logLossSkill":-1.3596,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":37.2,"earlyMoverPct":0.835,"timelinessScore":71}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xcc4dcf9b4d2db46745a03a7e06127eba8b5aaed9","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1771445874,"firstTxDate":"2026-02-18","walletAgeDays":60,"totalTransactions":298,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":297,"totalUsdcIn":2769.41,"totalUsdcOut":2476,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":43,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Active on-chain: 298 txs","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:37:49.274Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":334.92,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xcc4dcf9b4d2db46745a03a7e06127eba8b5aaed9","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":640.14,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":17,"largestWithdrawal":247.2,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-02-28","fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:37:44.757Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 60 days, 298 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $640 in / $0 out across 17 withdrawal tx since 2026-02-28.","230 total trades across 136 markets.","82 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 21.6% — needs improvement.","Skill: 35/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 100/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -162.1% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.1325 RES=0.0067 UNC=0.0781.","Log loss: 0.6883 (skill: -136.0% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 37.2 days before resolution, 84% early mover."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.215","High luck component: 100/100 — returns may not persist","Brier Skill Score: -162.1% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Low win rate: 9%"],"greenFlags":["Early mover: avg 37 days before resolution","Well-diversified: 136 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T03:37:49.549Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}