{"wallet":"0xce25e214d5cfe4f459cf67f08df581885aae7fdc","displayName":"Agile-Spacing","pseudonym":"Agile-Spacing","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":44948.97,"totalPnl":-55.19,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":-55.19,"winRate":0,"openPositions":16,"resolvedBets":202,"uniqueMarkets":210},"calibration":43,"profitability":40,"consistency":73,"discipline":94,"sampleSize":88,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":51,"trustGrade":"C","trustTier":"DEVELOPING","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":202,"description":"C/51 [CI95: C→C, 50-52] (202 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":50,"scoreHigh":52,"gradeLow":"INS","gradeHigh":"INS","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":true}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.14539445113843183,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.14539445113843183,"error":0.14539445113843183},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2618105545629141,"totalBets":12,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.2618105545629141,"error":0.2618105545629141},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.36032957191828513,"totalBets":29,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.36032957191828513,"error":0.36032957191828513},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4545171329906209,"totalBets":95,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4545171329906209,"error":0.4545171329906209},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5381643343435516,"totalBets":41,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5381643343435516,"error":0.5381643343435516},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6501740936238479,"totalBets":12,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6501740936238479,"error":0.6501740936238479},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7363124929702836,"totalBets":9,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7363124929702836,"error":0.7363124929702836}],"brierScore":0.2291,"calibrationError":0.4646,"resolvedBets":202,"overconfidenceBias":0.4646,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":4.3,"luck":41,"edge":-112.84},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2283,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":0.0836,"logLoss":0.6504,"logLossSkill":-81.2594,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0.2,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xce25e214d5cfe4f459cf67f08df581885aae7fdc","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1777575418,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-30","walletAgeDays":54,"totalTransactions":2734,"uniqueCounterparties":9,"inboundTxCount":734,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":0,"totalUsdcIn":0,"totalUsdcOut":0,"protocolsUsed":[],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":734,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":50,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.99,"medianTxIntervalSec":3600,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":40,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Counterparty concentration: 99% with top address"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2734 txs","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-06-24T10:19:49.270Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":null,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xce25e214d5cfe4f459cf67f08df581885aae7fdc","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":0,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":0,"largestWithdrawal":0,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"never","fetchedAt":"2026-06-24T10:19:50.355Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 54 days, 2734 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 50/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.","3100 total trades across 210 markets.","202 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 46.5% — needs improvement.","Skill: 4/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 41/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: 8.4% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2283 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.6504 (skill: -8125.9% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.465","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Low win rate: 0%","young_wallet: Wallet is only 0 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 210 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-06-24T10:19:55.364Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":false,"ageFactor":0,"reason":"Wallet is only 0 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)","ageDaysUsed":0}}