{"wallet":"0xce25e214d5cfe4f459cf67f08df581885aae7fdc","displayName":"Agile-Spacing","pseudonym":"Agile-Spacing","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":62424.71,"totalPnl":85.66,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":85.66,"winRate":0,"openPositions":12,"resolvedBets":118,"uniqueMarkets":121},"calibration":30,"profitability":40,"consistency":76,"discipline":84,"sampleSize":88,"liveEdge":63,"trustScore":52,"trustGrade":"C","trustTier":"DEVELOPING","confidence":{"level":"medium","margin":8,"resolvedBets":118,"description":"C/52 [CI95: C→C, 51-53] (118 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":51,"scoreHigh":53,"gradeLow":"INS","gradeHigh":"INS","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":true}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.054999999999999986,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.054999999999999986,"error":0.054999999999999986},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.17695487886196948,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.17695487886196948,"error":0.17695487886196948},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2808095154581673,"totalBets":3,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.2808095154581673,"error":0.2808095154581673},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3634523139443122,"totalBets":11,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3634523139443122,"error":0.3634523139443122},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.46080171243258544,"totalBets":51,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.46080171243258544,"error":0.46080171243258544},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.551245969963941,"totalBets":36,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.551245969963941,"error":0.551245969963941},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6499450184695215,"totalBets":11,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6499450184695215,"error":0.6499450184695215},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7037980168336586,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7037980168336586,"error":0.7037980168336586},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8520593388622824,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8520593388622824,"error":0.8520593388622824}],"brierScore":0.2558,"calibrationError":0.4918,"resolvedBets":118,"overconfidenceBias":0.4918,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":1,"luck":27.1,"edge":-97.02},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.255,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.0232,"logLoss":0.7068,"logLossSkill":-88.3828,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0.2,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xce25e214d5cfe4f459cf67f08df581885aae7fdc","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1777575418,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-30","walletAgeDays":8,"totalTransactions":2052,"uniqueCounterparties":4,"inboundTxCount":52,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":0,"totalUsdcIn":0,"totalUsdcOut":0,"protocolsUsed":[],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":52,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":80,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.94,"medianTxIntervalSec":3600,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":35,"provenanceGrade":"D","flags":["Young wallet: only 8 days old","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Wash trading signal: 94% of txs with single counterparty"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2052 txs","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-05-09T03:47:26.844Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":null,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xce25e214d5cfe4f459cf67f08df581885aae7fdc","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":0,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":0,"largestWithdrawal":0,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"never","fetchedAt":"2026-05-09T03:47:26.833Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 8 days, 2052 txs, provenance grade D. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 80/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.","3100 total trades across 121 markets.","118 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 49.2% — needs improvement.","Skill: 1/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 27/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -2.3% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2550 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.7068 (skill: -8838.3% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.492","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Low win rate: 0%","On-chain: wash trading signal — 94% of txs with single counterparty","young_wallet: Wallet is only 0 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)"],"greenFlags":["Net profitable: +$86 total PnL","Well-diversified: 121 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-05-09T03:47:34.024Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":false,"ageFactor":0,"reason":"Wallet is only 0 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)","ageDaysUsed":0}}