{"wallet":"0xd02b6d910a38479c3125308fc4737a46509cd6df","displayName":"wowitsamazing","pseudonym":"Novel-Plow-Toot","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":128326.79,"totalPnl":-662363.14,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":-662363.14,"winRate":0,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":1000,"uniqueMarkets":182},"calibration":26,"profitability":0,"consistency":76,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":41,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":1000,"description":"D/41 [CI95: D→D, 40-42] (1000 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":40,"scoreHigh":42,"gradeLow":"INS","gradeHigh":"INS","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":true}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.1797,"totalBets":16,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.1797,"error":0.1797},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2528793103448275,"totalBets":116,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.2528793103448275,"error":0.2528793103448275},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.35288953488372077,"totalBets":172,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.35288953488372077,"error":0.35288953488372077},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4491494382022472,"totalBets":178,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4491494382022472,"error":0.4491494382022472},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5534701923076926,"totalBets":208,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5534701923076926,"error":0.5534701923076926},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6506306818181821,"totalBets":176,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6506306818181821,"error":0.6506306818181821},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.739330909090909,"totalBets":110,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.739330909090909,"error":0.739330909090909},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8331333333333331,"totalBets":24,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8331333333333331,"error":0.8331333333333331}],"brierScore":0.2811,"calibrationError":0.5038,"resolvedBets":1000,"overconfidenceBias":0.5038,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":9.6,"edge":-118.92},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2803,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.1244,"logLoss":0.7642,"logLossSkill":-95.6404,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xd02b6d910a38479c3125308fc4737a46509cd6df","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1779554939,"firstTxDate":"2026-05-23","walletAgeDays":34,"totalTransactions":2000,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":0,"totalUsdcIn":0,"totalUsdcOut":0,"protocolsUsed":[],"uniqueContractsInteracted":1,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":35,"provenanceGrade":"D","flags":["Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-06-27T12:45:47.292Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":null,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xd02b6d910a38479c3125308fc4737a46509cd6df","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":0,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":0,"largestWithdrawal":0,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"never","fetchedAt":"2026-06-27T12:50:31.956Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 34 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade D. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.","3100 total trades across 182 markets.","1000 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 50.4% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 10/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -12.4% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2803 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.7642 (skill: -9564.0% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.504","Brier Skill Score: -12.4% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Net loss: -$662363 total PnL","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","young_wallet: Wallet is only 0 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 182 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-06-27T12:50:34.269Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":false,"ageFactor":0,"reason":"Wallet is only 0 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)","ageDaysUsed":0}}