{"wallet":"0xd1001f4ef07ee37774934a8bc0083185ef6b853d","displayName":"Trader 0xd1001f...","pseudonym":"","raw":{"totalTrades":709,"totalVolume":1382294.92,"totalPnl":2946.32,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":2946.32,"winRate":0.046,"openPositions":16,"resolvedBets":261,"uniqueMarkets":318},"calibration":3,"profitability":40,"consistency":78,"discipline":92,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":64,"trustScore":47,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":261,"description":"D/47 ± 3 (high confidence, 261 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.06849999999999999,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.06849999999999999,"error":0.06849999999999999},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.14274517027304554,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.14274517027304554,"error":0.14274517027304554},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.25525140560217735,"totalBets":8,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.25,"expectedRate":0.25525140560217735,"error":0.00525140560217735},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3400449321036476,"totalBets":22,"correctBets":3,"actualRate":0.13636363636363635,"expectedRate":0.3400449321036476,"error":0.20368129574001126},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.46540157041830027,"totalBets":101,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.019801980198019802,"expectedRate":0.46540157041830027,"error":0.44559959022028045},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5391666372237411,"totalBets":68,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.014705882352941176,"expectedRate":0.5391666372237411,"error":0.5244607548708},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.639347457724559,"totalBets":31,"correctBets":3,"actualRate":0.0967741935483871,"expectedRate":0.639347457724559,"error":0.5425732641761719},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7361490931770416,"totalBets":14,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.07142857142857142,"expectedRate":0.7361490931770416,"error":0.6647205217484702},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8458339368272639,"totalBets":7,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8458339368272639,"error":0.8458339368272639},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9175,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9175,"error":0.9175}],"brierScore":0.285,"calibrationError":0.466,"resolvedBets":261,"overconfidenceBias":0.466,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":4.6,"luck":24.6,"edge":-80.28},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2431,"resolution":0.003,"uncertainty":0.0439},"brierSkillScore":-5.4975,"logLoss":0.7813,"logLossSkill":-3.1895,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":4.6,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":5}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xd1001f4ef07ee37774934a8bc0083185ef6b853d","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1775660675,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-08","walletAgeDays":11,"totalTransactions":1263,"uniqueCounterparties":31,"inboundTxCount":224,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1024,"totalUsdcIn":1541280.81,"totalUsdcOut":1441270.57,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":17,"contractInteractions":224,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.05,"medianTxIntervalSec":1336,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":63,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Young wallet: only 11 days old","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 1263 txs","Significant USDC flow: $2,982,551","Human-like transaction patterns","Diverse trading network: 31 counterparties"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:17:09.521Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":97063.92,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xd1001f4ef07ee37774934a8bc0083185ef6b853d","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":1323618.89,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":148,"largestWithdrawal":45318.27,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-09","fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:17:10.431Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 11 days, 1263 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $1,323,619 in / $0 out across 148 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-09.","709 total trades across 318 markets.","261 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 46.6% — needs improvement.","Skill: 5/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 25/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -549.8% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2431 RES=0.0030 UNC=0.0439.","Log loss: 0.7813 (skill: -318.9% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 4.6 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.466","Brier Skill Score: -549.8% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Low win rate: 5%"],"greenFlags":["Net profitable: +$2946 total PnL","Well-diversified: 318 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns","On-chain: diverse counterparty network","On-chain: $1,323,619 total USDC.e received from Polymarket contracts across 148 tx (Polygon)"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T03:17:14.616Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}