{"wallet":"0xd1436857746dae9561156f645fa286d00cda9419","displayName":"crocsdilla","pseudonym":"Frivolous-Register","raw":{"totalTrades":1662,"totalVolume":4502.88,"totalPnl":-78.65,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":-78.65,"winRate":0,"openPositions":2,"resolvedBets":264,"uniqueMarkets":288},"calibration":8,"profitability":37,"consistency":66,"discipline":75,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":100,"trustScore":52,"trustGrade":"C","trustTier":"DEVELOPING","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":264,"description":"C/52 ± 3 (high confidence, 264 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.010000000000000009,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.010000000000000009,"error":0.010000000000000009},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.14506915324790623,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.14506915324790623,"error":0.14506915324790623},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.26990789008036514,"totalBets":10,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.26990789008036514,"error":0.26990789008036514},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.36164965625987144,"totalBets":18,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.36164965625987144,"error":0.36164965625987144},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4580524027684004,"totalBets":33,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4580524027684004,"error":0.4580524027684004},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5594040011417807,"totalBets":43,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5594040011417807,"error":0.5594040011417807},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.653599861155642,"totalBets":52,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.653599861155642,"error":0.653599861155642},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.742259406672352,"totalBets":48,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.742259406672352,"error":0.742259406672352},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8483079190828043,"totalBets":33,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8483079190828043,"error":0.8483079190828043},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9423765283923414,"totalBets":20,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9423765283923414,"error":0.9423765283923414}],"brierScore":0.4317,"calibrationError":0.6277,"resolvedBets":264,"overconfidenceBias":0.6277,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":16.4,"edge":-44.59},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.4309,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.7268,"logLoss":1.1767,"logLossSkill":-147.8185,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":1.8,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":2}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xd1436857746dae9561156f645fa286d00cda9419","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1776304150,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-16","walletAgeDays":4,"totalTransactions":2042,"uniqueCounterparties":2,"inboundTxCount":42,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":5651.16,"totalUsdcOut":5084.68,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":42,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":80,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.95,"medianTxIntervalSec":2880,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":43,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Very new wallet: 4 days old — possible sybil","Limited counterparties: only 2 unique addresses","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Wash trading signal: 95% of txs with single counterparty"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2042 txs","Significant USDC flow: $10,736","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:19:51.927Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":645.13,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xd1436857746dae9561156f645fa286d00cda9419","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":3026.21,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":116,"largestWithdrawal":136.11,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-17","fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:19:52.219Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 4 days, 2042 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 80/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $3,026 in / $0 out across 116 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-17.","1662 total trades across 288 markets.","264 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 62.8% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 16/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -72.7% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.4309 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 1.1767 (skill: -14781.9% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 1.8 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Weak Brier score: 0.4317","Overconfidence bias: 0.628","Brier Skill Score: -72.7% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Low win rate: 0%","On-chain: wallet only 4 days old on Polygon","On-chain: wash trading signal — 95% of txs with single counterparty"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 288 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T03:19:55.359Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}