{"wallet":"0xd218e474776403a330142299f7796e8ba32eb5c9","displayName":"cigarettes","pseudonym":"Attentive-Crewman","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":141123.47,"totalPnl":2276804.93,"realizedPnl":2281725.04,"unrealizedPnl":-4920.11,"winRate":0.09,"openPositions":308,"resolvedBets":692,"uniqueMarkets":150},"calibration":60,"profitability":100,"consistency":72,"discipline":98,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":61,"trustScore":48,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":692,"description":"D/48 [CI95: D→D, 47-49] (692 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":47,"scoreHigh":49,"gradeLow":"D","gradeHigh":"D","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":false}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.027275974025973985,"totalBets":616,"correctBets":42,"actualRate":0.06818181818181818,"expectedRate":0.027275974025973985,"error":0.040905844155844195},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.12225217391304351,"totalBets":46,"correctBets":14,"actualRate":0.30434782608695654,"expectedRate":0.12225217391304351,"error":0.18209565217391305},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.210025,"totalBets":8,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.210025,"error":0.210025},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3084,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3084,"error":0.3084},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5967,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":1,"expectedRate":0.5967,"error":0.4033},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.84874,"totalBets":10,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.2,"expectedRate":0.84874,"error":0.6487400000000001},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9575999999999999,"totalBets":8,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.25,"expectedRate":0.9575999999999999,"error":0.7075999999999999}],"brierScore":0.0925,"calibrationError":0.0706,"resolvedBets":692,"overconfidenceBias":-0.0288,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":52.6,"luck":100,"edge":-54.02},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.0168,"resolution":0.0065,"uncertainty":0.0816},"brierSkillScore":-0.1338,"logLoss":0.3619,"logLossSkill":-0.1999,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xd218e474776403a330142299f7796e8ba32eb5c9","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1727080539,"firstTxDate":"2024-09-23","walletAgeDays":648,"totalTransactions":2000,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":127363.82,"totalUsdcOut":122376.6,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":68,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Wallet age: 648 days (mature)","Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs","Significant USDC flow: $249,740","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-07-04T01:55:10.764Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":2271817.71,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xd218e474776403a330142299f7796e8ba32eb5c9","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":0,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":0,"largestWithdrawal":0,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"never","fetchedAt":"2026-07-04T01:55:06.910Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 648 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.","3100 total trades across 150 markets.","692 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 7.1% — excellent.","Skill: 53/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 100/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -13.4% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.0168 RES=0.0065 UNC=0.0816.","Log loss: 0.3619 (skill: -20.0% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["High luck component: 100/100 — returns may not persist","Brier Skill Score: -13.4% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Penny-lottery strategy: 89% of bets at sub-$0.10 — score penalized by 30 pts","Low win rate: 9%","PnL divergence: $2271818 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows"],"greenFlags":["Strong Brier score: 0.0925","Net profitable: +$2276805 total PnL","Well-diversified: 150 unique markets","On-chain: 648-day wallet history on Polygon","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-07-04T01:55:12.487Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":true,"ageFactor":0.8876406697152203,"reason":"Wallet age 510d → difficulty factor 0.89","ageDaysUsed":510}}