{"wallet":"0xd235973291b2b75ff4070e9c0b01728c520b0f29","displayName":"zxgngl","pseudonym":"Delayed-Terrapin","raw":{"totalTrades":909,"totalVolume":15679819.6,"totalPnl":-7281515.16,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":-7281515.16,"winRate":0.833,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":6,"uniqueMarkets":8},"calibration":28,"profitability":0,"consistency":82,"discipline":12,"sampleSize":20,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":31,"trustGrade":"F","trustTier":"DANGER","confidence":{"level":"very_low","margin":25,"resolvedBets":6,"description":"F/31 ± 25 (very_low confidence, 6 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.04100000076720123,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":1,"expectedRate":0.04100000076720123,"error":0.9589999992327988},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.330130546761407,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.330130546761407,"error":0.330130546761407},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6200687364643251,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":1,"expectedRate":0.6200687364643251,"error":0.37993126353567486},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":1,"expectedRate":0.8,"error":0.19999999999999996},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.905,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":1,"expectedRate":0.905,"error":0.09499999999999997}],"brierScore":0.2052,"calibrationError":0.3432,"resolvedBets":6,"overconfidenceBias":-0.2331,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":41,"luck":69.6,"edge":36.58},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2052,"resolution":0.1389,"uncertainty":0.1389},"brierSkillScore":-0.4773,"logLoss":0.7493,"logLossSkill":-0.663,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":535,"earlyMoverPct":1,"timelinessScore":100}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xd235973291b2b75ff4070e9c0b01728c520b0f29","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1728604982,"firstTxDate":"2024-10-11","walletAgeDays":557,"totalTransactions":2000,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":2000,"totalUsdcIn":7724260.6,"totalUsdcOut":7128685.07,"protocolsUsed":["USDC","USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":71,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Wallet age: 557 days (mature)","Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs","Significant USDC flow: $14,852,946","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-21T06:34:11.531Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":7877090.69,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xd235973291b2b75ff4070e9c0b01728c520b0f29","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":0,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":0,"largestWithdrawal":0,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"never","fetchedAt":"2026-04-21T06:34:11.699Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 557 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.","909 total trades across 8 markets.","6 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Insufficient resolved bets for calibration analysis.","Skill: 41/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 70/100 (higher = more volatile returns)."],"flags":["Net loss: -$7281515 total PnL","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","Thin resolved data: only 6 resolved bets","PnL divergence: $7877091 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows"],"greenFlags":["On-chain: 557-day wallet history on Polygon","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-21T06:34:12.850Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","cached":true,"cachedAt":1776753252850}