{"wallet":"0xd23f8c8aab13cfb2a35da40b67f8471faf9894a1","displayName":"Corlys","pseudonym":"Impish-Downfall","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":44342.53,"totalPnl":-66754.23,"realizedPnl":31629.52,"unrealizedPnl":-98383.74,"winRate":0,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":1000,"uniqueMarkets":684},"calibration":97,"profitability":0,"consistency":100,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":62,"trustGrade":"C","trustTier":"DEVELOPING","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":1000,"description":"C/62 [CI95: C→C, 62-62] (1000 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":62,"scoreHigh":62,"gradeLow":"INS","gradeHigh":"INS","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":true}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.029241534988713604,"totalBets":886,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.029241534988713604,"error":0.029241534988713604},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.1061098039215685,"totalBets":102,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.1061098039215685,"error":0.1061098039215685},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.21000000000000002,"totalBets":10,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.21000000000000002,"error":0.21000000000000002},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3333,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3333,"error":0.3333}],"brierScore":0.003,"calibrationError":0.0395,"resolvedBets":1000,"overconfidenceBias":0.0395,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":55.3,"luck":25,"edge":-99.28},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.0026,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":0.9878,"logLoss":0.0412,"logLossSkill":-4.2059,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xd23f8c8aab13cfb2a35da40b67f8471faf9894a1","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1779931654,"firstTxDate":"2026-05-28","walletAgeDays":20,"totalTransactions":2000,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":528,"totalUsdcIn":7556.58,"totalUsdcOut":7556.58,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":48,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Young wallet: only 20 days old","Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs","Significant USDC flow: $15,113","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-06-17T10:47:53.250Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":66754.23,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xd23f8c8aab13cfb2a35da40b67f8471faf9894a1","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":0,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":0,"largestWithdrawal":0,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"never","fetchedAt":"2026-06-17T10:47:52.952Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 20 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.","3100 total trades across 684 markets.","1000 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 4.0% — excellent.","Skill: 55/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 25/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: 98.8% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.0026 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.0412 (skill: -420.6% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Net loss: -$66754 total PnL","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","PnL divergence: $66754 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows","young_wallet: Wallet is only 20 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)"],"greenFlags":["Strong Brier score: 0.003","Brier Skill Score: 98.8% better than naive baseline","Well-diversified: 684 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-06-17T10:47:58.285Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":false,"ageFactor":0,"reason":"Wallet is only 20 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)","ageDaysUsed":20}}