{"wallet":"0xd3ac6d1cf8f4d942f9eca78440a41ddfacaff650","displayName":"Trader 0xd3ac6d...","pseudonym":"","raw":{"totalTrades":926,"totalVolume":3429.5,"totalPnl":3.55,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":3.55,"winRate":0,"openPositions":8,"resolvedBets":395,"uniqueMarkets":607},"calibration":71,"profitability":40,"consistency":0,"discipline":84,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":62,"trustScore":62,"trustGrade":"C","trustTier":"DEVELOPING","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":395,"description":"C/62 ± 3 (high confidence, 395 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.08750000561827284,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.08750000561827284,"error":0.08750000561827284},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.16445189516265124,"totalBets":137,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.16445189516265124,"error":0.16445189516265124},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.24149623151621627,"totalBets":117,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.24149623151621627,"error":0.24149623151621627},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.33109751612687793,"totalBets":27,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.33109751612687793,"error":0.33109751612687793},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4580872715545319,"totalBets":31,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4580872715545319,"error":0.4580872715545319},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5413313265795614,"totalBets":55,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5413313265795614,"error":0.5413313265795614},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6383333533791702,"totalBets":12,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6383333533791702,"error":0.6383333533791702},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7433333503666683,"totalBets":3,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7433333503666683,"error":0.7433333503666683},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8200000266920027,"totalBets":5,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8200000266920027,"error":0.8200000266920027},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9594293772976046,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9594293772976046,"error":0.9594293772976046}],"brierScore":0.1265,"calibrationError":0.3085,"resolvedBets":395,"overconfidenceBias":0.3085,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":23,"luck":10.8,"edge":-108.37},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.1259,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":0.4942,"logLoss":0.4271,"logLossSkill":-53.0104,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":2,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":2}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xd3ac6d1cf8f4d942f9eca78440a41ddfacaff650","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1775930113,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-11","walletAgeDays":8,"totalTransactions":2599,"uniqueCounterparties":8,"inboundTxCount":1,"outboundTxCount":598,"totalEthReceived":"11.406928","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"11.406928","usdcTransfers":1966,"totalUsdcIn":2908.57,"totalUsdcOut":2847.88,"protocolsUsed":["USDC","USDC.e (Bridged)","Polymarket Neg Risk Adapter"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":13,"contractInteractions":598,"botScore":10,"washTradingScore":50,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.89,"medianTxIntervalSec":368,"burstTxCount":61,"provenanceScore":55,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Young wallet: only 8 days old","Counterparty concentration: 89% with top address"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2599 txs","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T02:07:17.441Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":57.14,"pnlVerified":true},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 8 days, 2599 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 10/100, wash trading score: 50/100.","926 total trades across 607 markets.","395 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 30.9% — needs improvement.","Skill: 23/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 11/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: 49.4% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.1259 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.4271 (skill: -5301.0% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 2.0 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.308","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Low win rate: 0%"],"greenFlags":["Strong Brier score: 0.1265","Brier Skill Score: 49.4% better than naive baseline","Proven track record bonus: +5 pts (395 resolved bets, positive BSS, profitable)","Net profitable: +$4 total PnL","Well-diversified: 607 unique markets","On-chain: multi-protocol user (USDC, USDC.e (Bridged), Polymarket Neg Risk Adapter)","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T02:07:18.736Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}