{"wallet":"0xd4253cf046d1e7080c2bab443737710d55a9c0e4","displayName":"LuckyNumberThirteen","pseudonym":"Uncomfortable-Rat","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":24410.25,"totalPnl":4411.6,"realizedPnl":9648.41,"unrealizedPnl":-5236.81,"winRate":0,"openPositions":16,"resolvedBets":182,"uniqueMarkets":104},"calibration":34,"profitability":76,"consistency":87,"discipline":93,"sampleSize":88,"liveEdge":51,"trustScore":60,"trustGrade":"C","trustTier":"DEVELOPING","confidence":{"level":"medium","margin":8,"resolvedBets":182,"description":"C/60 ± 8 (medium confidence, 182 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.0883,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.0883,"error":0.0883},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.1485875,"totalBets":16,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.1485875,"error":0.1485875},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.24808571428571424,"totalBets":28,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.24808571428571424,"error":0.24808571428571424},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3616538461538461,"totalBets":26,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3616538461538461,"error":0.3616538461538461},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4534,"totalBets":36,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4534,"error":0.4534},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5628785714285713,"totalBets":28,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5628785714285713,"error":0.5628785714285713},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6551727272727272,"totalBets":22,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6551727272727272,"error":0.6551727272727272},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.74471,"totalBets":20,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.74471,"error":0.74471},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8243,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8243,"error":0.8243}],"brierScore":0.2481,"calibrationError":0.4593,"resolvedBets":182,"overconfidenceBias":0.4593,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":4.9,"luck":20.9,"edge":-89.89},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2474,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":0.0076,"logLoss":0.6889,"logLossSkill":-86.1201,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xd4253cf046d1e7080c2bab443737710d55a9c0e4","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1774871542,"firstTxDate":"2026-03-30","walletAgeDays":23,"totalTransactions":3000,"uniqueCounterparties":4,"inboundTxCount":1000,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":2000,"totalUsdcIn":13358.07,"totalUsdcOut":9751.35,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":1000,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":80,"topCounterpartyConcentration":1,"medianTxIntervalSec":368,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":53,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Young wallet: only 23 days old","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Wash trading signal: 100% of txs with single counterparty"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 3000 txs","Significant USDC flow: $23,109","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-23T02:58:14.400Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":804.88,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xd4253cf046d1e7080c2bab443737710d55a9c0e4","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":8258.07,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":24,"largestWithdrawal":581.07,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-01","fetchedAt":"2026-04-23T02:58:14.374Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 23 days, 3000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 80/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $8,258 in / $0 out across 24 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-01.","3100 total trades across 104 markets.","182 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 45.9% — needs improvement.","Skill: 5/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 21/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: 0.8% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2474 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.6889 (skill: -8612.0% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.459","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Low win rate: 0%","On-chain: wash trading signal — 100% of txs with single counterparty"],"greenFlags":["Net profitable: +$4412 total PnL","Well-diversified: 104 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-23T02:58:20.975Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}