{"wallet":"0xd49b42bce7ea10bac53e2901c188cae20ea4bdf9","displayName":"i18z","pseudonym":"Glass-Diet","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":320929.39,"totalPnl":-194172.93,"realizedPnl":131208.18,"unrealizedPnl":-325381.11,"winRate":0.041,"openPositions":112,"resolvedBets":888,"uniqueMarkets":554},"calibration":62,"profitability":0,"consistency":50,"discipline":96,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":79,"trustScore":23,"trustGrade":"F","trustTier":"DANGER","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":888,"description":"F/23 [CI95: F→F, 22-24] (888 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":22,"scoreHigh":24,"gradeLow":"INS","gradeHigh":"INS","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":true}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.020743645083932855,"totalBets":834,"correctBets":36,"actualRate":0.04316546762589928,"expectedRate":0.020743645083932855,"error":0.022421822541966428},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.14343157894736844,"totalBets":38,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.14343157894736844,"error":0.14343157894736844},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.19999999999999998,"totalBets":12,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.19999999999999998,"error":0.19999999999999998},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9820500000000001,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9820500000000001,"error":0.9820500000000001}],"brierScore":0.0451,"calibrationError":0.0343,"resolvedBets":888,"overconfidenceBias":-0.0078,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":55.9,"luck":57.1,"edge":-83.13},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.0062,"resolution":0.0001,"uncertainty":0.0389},"brierSkillScore":-0.1594,"logLoss":0.2123,"logLossSkill":-0.2516,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xd49b42bce7ea10bac53e2901c188cae20ea4bdf9","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1777961684,"firstTxDate":"2026-05-05","walletAgeDays":4,"totalTransactions":2002,"uniqueCounterparties":1,"inboundTxCount":2,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":6,"totalUsdcIn":39075.26,"totalUsdcOut":39075.26,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":2,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":80,"topCounterpartyConcentration":1,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":43,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Very new wallet: 4 days old — possible sybil","Limited counterparties: only 1 unique addresses","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Wash trading signal: 100% of txs with single counterparty"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2002 txs","Significant USDC flow: $78,151","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-05-09T23:04:46.127Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":194172.93,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xd49b42bce7ea10bac53e2901c188cae20ea4bdf9","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":0,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":0,"largestWithdrawal":0,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"never","fetchedAt":"2026-05-09T23:06:32.520Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 4 days, 2002 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 80/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.","3100 total trades across 554 markets.","888 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 3.4% — excellent.","Skill: 56/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 57/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -15.9% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.0062 RES=0.0001 UNC=0.0389.","Log loss: 0.2123 (skill: -25.2% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Brier Skill Score: -15.9% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Penny-lottery strategy: 94% of bets at sub-$0.10 — score penalized by 30 pts","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Net loss: -$194173 total PnL","Low win rate: 4%","On-chain: wallet only 4 days old on Polygon","PnL divergence: $194173 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows","On-chain: wash trading signal — 100% of txs with single counterparty","young_wallet: Wallet is only 0 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)"],"greenFlags":["Strong Brier score: 0.0451","Strong live edge: 112 open positions trending profitable","Well-diversified: 554 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-05-09T23:06:34.021Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":false,"ageFactor":0,"reason":"Wallet is only 0 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)","ageDaysUsed":0}}