{"wallet":"0xd7c626093f28383612363889ad811fc736d3706f","displayName":"jj8899777","pseudonym":"Frequent-Jack","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":12294.91,"totalPnl":-41344.57,"realizedPnl":811.43,"unrealizedPnl":-42156,"winRate":0.008,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":756,"uniqueMarkets":50},"calibration":0,"profitability":0,"consistency":91,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":32,"trustGrade":"F","trustTier":"DANGER","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":756,"description":"F/32 [CI95: F→F, 32-32] (756 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":32,"scoreHigh":32,"gradeLow":"INS","gradeHigh":"INS","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":true}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.16495454545454546,"totalBets":22,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.16495454545454546,"error":0.16495454545454546},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2423571428571428,"totalBets":28,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.2423571428571428,"error":0.2423571428571428},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3500611111111111,"totalBets":36,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3500611111111111,"error":0.3500611111111111},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4767845360824742,"totalBets":194,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4767845360824742,"error":0.4767845360824742},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5230357142857146,"totalBets":364,"correctBets":6,"actualRate":0.016483516483516484,"expectedRate":0.5230357142857146,"error":0.5065521978021981},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.639164516129032,"totalBets":62,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.639164516129032,"error":0.639164516129032},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7326142857142858,"totalBets":28,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7326142857142858,"error":0.7326142857142858},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8488777777777777,"totalBets":18,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8488777777777777,"error":0.8488777777777777},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.927,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.927,"error":0.927}],"brierScore":0.2747,"calibrationError":0.5014,"resolvedBets":756,"overconfidenceBias":0.5014,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":32.9,"edge":-73.02},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2658,"resolution":0.0001,"uncertainty":0.0079},"brierSkillScore":-33.8833,"logLoss":0.7519,"logLossSkill":-15.243,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xd7c626093f28383612363889ad811fc736d3706f","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1776312438,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-16","walletAgeDays":9,"totalTransactions":2975,"uniqueCounterparties":2,"inboundTxCount":975,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":18469.72,"totalUsdcOut":16096.72,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":975,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":80,"topCounterpartyConcentration":1,"medianTxIntervalSec":100,"burstTxCount":13,"provenanceScore":48,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Young wallet: only 9 days old","Limited counterparties: only 2 unique addresses","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Wash trading signal: 100% of txs with single counterparty"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2975 txs","Significant USDC flow: $34,566","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-25T10:48:32.213Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":43717.57,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xd7c626093f28383612363889ad811fc736d3706f","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":11615.61,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":14700,"withdrawalTxCount":30,"largestWithdrawal":700.56,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-16","fetchedAt":"2026-04-25T10:48:31.941Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 9 days, 2975 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 80/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $11,616 in / $14,700 out across 30 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-16.","3100 total trades across 50 markets.","756 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 50.1% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 33/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -3388.3% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2658 RES=0.0001 UNC=0.0079.","Log loss: 0.7519 (skill: -1524.3% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.501","Brier Skill Score: -3388.3% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Net loss: -$41345 total PnL","Low win rate: 1%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","PnL divergence: $43718 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows","On-chain: wash trading signal — 100% of txs with single counterparty","young_wallet: Wallet is only 9 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 50 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns","On-chain: $11,616 total USDC.e received from Polymarket contracts across 30 tx (Polygon)"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-25T10:48:38.519Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":false,"ageFactor":0,"reason":"Wallet is only 9 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)","ageDaysUsed":9}}