{"wallet":"0xdbe99f1ecf8a60a67638951fdaf024e5ef260382","displayName":"Informal-Archives","pseudonym":"Informal-Archives","raw":{"totalTrades":142,"totalVolume":744017.31,"totalPnl":94.98,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":94.98,"winRate":0.246,"openPositions":4,"resolvedBets":57,"uniqueMarkets":92},"calibration":75,"profitability":40,"consistency":0,"discipline":79,"sampleSize":75,"liveEdge":51,"trustScore":52,"trustGrade":"C","trustTier":"DEVELOPING","confidence":{"level":"medium","margin":8,"resolvedBets":57,"description":"C/52 ± 8 (medium confidence, 57 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.03514419429228212,"totalBets":31,"correctBets":4,"actualRate":0.12903225806451613,"expectedRate":0.03514419429228212,"error":0.093888063772234},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.16073104165493138,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.16073104165493138,"error":0.16073104165493138},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2417974949388948,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.2417974949388948,"error":0.2417974949388948},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3800000001002416,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3800000001002416,"error":0.3800000001002416},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4600000004536,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4600000004536,"error":0.4600000004536},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5187318143551021,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5187318143551021,"error":0.5187318143551021},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6488829889026853,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":1,"expectedRate":0.6488829889026853,"error":0.35111701109731475},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7433793281777604,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.5,"expectedRate":0.7433793281777604,"error":0.24337932817776042},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8611119218266334,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":3,"actualRate":0.5,"expectedRate":0.8611119218266334,"error":0.36111192182663343},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9747156963967237,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":5,"actualRate":0.8333333333333334,"expectedRate":0.9747156963967237,"error":0.14138236306339036}],"brierScore":0.1516,"calibrationError":0.1707,"resolvedBets":57,"overconfidenceBias":0.0563,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":51.4,"luck":34.2,"edge":-313.83},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.0417,"resolution":0.0745,"uncertainty":0.1853},"brierSkillScore":0.182,"logLoss":0.5392,"logLossSkill":0.0327,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":34.3,"earlyMoverPct":0.439,"timelinessScore":52}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xdbe99f1ecf8a60a67638951fdaf024e5ef260382","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1730706759,"firstTxDate":"2024-11-04","walletAgeDays":531,"totalTransactions":251,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":248,"totalUsdcIn":640419.89,"totalUsdcOut":640212.77,"protocolsUsed":["USDC","USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":5,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":66,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Wallet age: 531 days (mature)","Active on-chain: 251 txs","Significant USDC flow: $1,280,633","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T02:06:46.749Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":112.14,"pnlVerified":true},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 531 days, 251 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","142 total trades across 92 markets.","57 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 17.1% — good.","Skill: 51/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 34/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: 18.2% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.0417 RES=0.0745 UNC=0.1853.","Log loss: 0.5392 (skill: 3.3% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 34.3 days before resolution, 44% early mover."],"flags":["Low win rate: 25%"],"greenFlags":["Strong Brier score: 0.1516","Brier Skill Score: 18.2% better than naive baseline","Strong resolution/discrimination: forecasts meaningfully diverge from base rate","Net profitable: +$95 total PnL","Well-diversified: 92 unique markets","On-chain: 531-day wallet history on Polygon","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T02:06:47.238Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}