{"wallet":"0xdccf58e54674cb2a8c0e6254f86f88e8973417cc","displayName":"Anonn0011","pseudonym":"Shrill-Stockings","raw":{"totalTrades":2751,"totalVolume":6725.57,"totalPnl":255.9,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":255.9,"winRate":0,"openPositions":4,"resolvedBets":473,"uniqueMarkets":987},"calibration":9,"profitability":48,"consistency":61,"discipline":85,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":100,"trustScore":54,"trustGrade":"C","trustTier":"DEVELOPING","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":473,"description":"C/54 ± 3 (high confidence, 473 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.03500000000000003,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.03500000000000003,"error":0.03500000000000003},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.14308478652968068,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.14308478652968068,"error":0.14308478652968068},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2554920541152307,"totalBets":14,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.2554920541152307,"error":0.2554920541152307},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3517692489224505,"totalBets":38,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3517692489224505,"error":0.3517692489224505},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.45605868541262257,"totalBets":74,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.45605868541262257,"error":0.45605868541262257},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5506942509037671,"totalBets":80,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5506942509037671,"error":0.5506942509037671},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6479847996578544,"totalBets":91,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6479847996578544,"error":0.6479847996578544},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7484920959475251,"totalBets":74,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7484920959475251,"error":0.7484920959475251},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.847079751673017,"totalBets":60,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.847079751673017,"error":0.847079751673017},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9478556433586165,"totalBets":36,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9478556433586165,"error":0.9478556433586165}],"brierScore":0.4245,"calibrationError":0.623,"resolvedBets":473,"overconfidenceBias":0.623,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":18.3,"edge":-41.47},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.4237,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.698,"logLoss":1.1807,"logLossSkill":-148.32,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":4,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":4}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xdccf58e54674cb2a8c0e6254f86f88e8973417cc","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1774817364,"firstTxDate":"2026-03-29","walletAgeDays":21,"totalTransactions":2346,"uniqueCounterparties":3,"inboundTxCount":346,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1998,"totalUsdcIn":5415.92,"totalUsdcOut":5338.93,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":4,"contractInteractions":346,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":20,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.5,"medianTxIntervalSec":1640,"burstTxCount":2,"provenanceScore":53,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Young wallet: only 21 days old","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2346 txs","Significant USDC flow: $10,755","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:16:10.524Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":178.91,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xdccf58e54674cb2a8c0e6254f86f88e8973417cc","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":4435.07,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":184,"largestWithdrawal":152.3,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-03-29","fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:16:11.662Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 21 days, 2346 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 20/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $4,435 in / $0 out across 184 withdrawal tx since 2026-03-29.","2751 total trades across 987 markets.","473 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 62.3% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 18/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -69.8% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.4237 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 1.1807 (skill: -14832.0% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 4.0 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Weak Brier score: 0.4245","Overconfidence bias: 0.623","Brier Skill Score: -69.8% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Low win rate: 0%"],"greenFlags":["Strong live edge: 4 open positions trending profitable","Net profitable: +$256 total PnL","Well-diversified: 987 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T03:16:15.927Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}