{"wallet":"0xe0229e10a858860218b6132f4234602c47bd6603","displayName":"JetFadil","pseudonym":"Upset-Sight","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":29337.3,"totalPnl":47.41,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":47.41,"winRate":0,"openPositions":8,"resolvedBets":58,"uniqueMarkets":61},"calibration":41,"profitability":40,"consistency":87,"discipline":88,"sampleSize":75,"liveEdge":55,"trustScore":54,"trustGrade":"C","trustTier":"DEVELOPING","confidence":{"level":"medium","margin":8,"resolvedBets":58,"description":"C/54 [CI95: C→C, 53-55] (58 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":53,"scoreHigh":55,"gradeLow":"C","gradeHigh":"C","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":false}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3767141939313081,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3767141939313081,"error":0.3767141939313081},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4589502323913404,"totalBets":43,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4589502323913404,"error":0.4589502323913404},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5294223284380302,"totalBets":9,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5294223284380302,"error":0.5294223284380302},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6840964705882353,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6840964705882353,"error":0.6840964705882353},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.89,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.89,"error":0.89}],"brierScore":0.2318,"calibrationError":0.4755,"resolvedBets":58,"overconfidenceBias":0.4755,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":2.9,"luck":14.6,"edge":-113.36},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2312,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":0.073,"logLoss":0.664,"logLossSkill":-82.9673,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0.1,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xe0229e10a858860218b6132f4234602c47bd6603","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1774531307,"firstTxDate":"2026-03-26","walletAgeDays":42,"totalTransactions":2993,"uniqueCounterparties":9,"inboundTxCount":993,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":2000,"totalUsdcIn":31081.5,"totalUsdcOut":28002.76,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":993,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":50,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.99,"medianTxIntervalSec":298,"burstTxCount":2,"provenanceScore":58,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Counterparty concentration: 99% with top address"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2993 txs","Significant USDC flow: $59,084","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-05-07T15:38:25.238Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":3031.33,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xe0229e10a858860218b6132f4234602c47bd6603","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":27003.65,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":34,"largestWithdrawal":2462.8,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-03-26","fetchedAt":"2026-05-07T15:38:25.219Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 42 days, 2993 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 50/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $27,004 in / $0 out across 34 withdrawal tx since 2026-03-26.","3100 total trades across 61 markets.","58 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 47.5% — needs improvement.","Skill: 3/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 15/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: 7.3% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2312 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.6640 (skill: -8296.7% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.475","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Low win rate: 0%"],"greenFlags":["Net profitable: +$47 total PnL","Well-diversified: 61 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns","On-chain: $27,004 total USDC.e received from Polymarket contracts across 34 tx (Polygon)"],"scoredAt":"2026-05-07T15:38:32.204Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":true,"ageFactor":0.09786642972531319,"reason":"Wallet age 41d → difficulty factor 0.10","ageDaysUsed":41}}