{"wallet":"0xe1d6b51521bd4365769199f392f9818661bd907c","displayName":"Idolized-Scallops","pseudonym":"Idolized-Scallops","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":108263.7,"totalPnl":-150.13,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":-150.13,"winRate":0.058,"openPositions":48,"resolvedBets":69,"uniqueMarkets":113},"calibration":5,"profitability":40,"consistency":65,"discipline":90,"sampleSize":75,"liveEdge":55,"trustScore":41,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"medium","margin":8,"resolvedBets":69,"description":"D/41 [CI95: D→D, 39-43] (69 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":39,"scoreHigh":43,"gradeLow":"D","gradeHigh":"D","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":false}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.0611914959784714,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.0611914959784714,"error":0.0611914959784714},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.19060576270599594,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.19060576270599594,"error":0.19060576270599594},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.23637736281447824,"totalBets":5,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.2,"expectedRate":0.23637736281447824,"error":0.03637736281447823},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.34172071263480275,"totalBets":5,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.34172071263480275,"error":0.34172071263480275},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4504133252885672,"totalBets":26,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4504133252885672,"error":0.4504133252885672},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5479102065174017,"totalBets":11,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5479102065174017,"error":0.5479102065174017},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6378108124981129,"totalBets":10,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.1,"expectedRate":0.6378108124981129,"error":0.5378108124981129},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7412651773611819,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.16666666666666666,"expectedRate":0.7412651773611819,"error":0.5745985106945153},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8251223819358184,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.5,"expectedRate":0.8251223819358184,"error":0.32512238193581844},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9201992034548936,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9201992034548936,"error":0.9201992034548936}],"brierScore":0.2658,"calibrationError":0.4397,"resolvedBets":69,"overconfidenceBias":0.4397,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":8.9,"luck":33.4,"edge":-89.15},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2195,"resolution":0.0106,"uncertainty":0.0546},"brierSkillScore":-3.867,"logLoss":0.7355,"logLossSkill":-2.3226,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0.2,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xe1d6b51521bd4365769199f392f9818661bd907c","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1774376075,"firstTxDate":"2026-03-24","walletAgeDays":30,"totalTransactions":2727,"uniqueCounterparties":19,"inboundTxCount":727,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":393360.25,"totalUsdcOut":64514.51,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":727,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":20,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.97,"medianTxIntervalSec":3600,"burstTxCount":8,"provenanceScore":63,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2727 txs","Significant USDC flow: $457,875","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-24T08:50:50.332Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":328995.87,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xe1d6b51521bd4365769199f392f9818661bd907c","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":23360.25,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":21,"largestWithdrawal":4815.22,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-03-24","fetchedAt":"2026-04-24T08:50:49.833Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 30 days, 2727 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 20/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $23,360 in / $0 out across 21 withdrawal tx since 2026-03-24.","3100 total trades across 113 markets.","69 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 44.0% — needs improvement.","Skill: 9/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 33/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -386.7% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2195 RES=0.0106 UNC=0.0546.","Log loss: 0.7355 (skill: -232.3% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.440","Brier Skill Score: -386.7% — performing worse than naive baseline","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Net loss: -$150 total PnL","Low win rate: 6%","PnL divergence: $328996 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 113 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns","On-chain: $23,360 total USDC.e received from Polymarket contracts across 21 tx (Polygon)"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-24T08:51:02.636Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":true,"ageFactor":0,"reason":"Wallet age 30d → difficulty factor 0.00","ageDaysUsed":30},"cached":true,"cachedAt":1777020671121}