{"wallet":"0xe2a713a10ad4cc905c04631fbf761a42981182eb","displayName":"juzoh","pseudonym":"Sudden-Grammar","raw":{"totalTrades":1630,"totalVolume":4438.74,"totalPnl":-119.43,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":-119.43,"winRate":0,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":262,"uniqueMarkets":289},"calibration":7,"profitability":35,"consistency":67,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":37,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":262,"description":"D/37 ± 3 (high confidence, 262 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.14310624994176951,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.14310624994176951,"error":0.14310624994176951},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.26061827753384725,"totalBets":9,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.26061827753384725,"error":0.26061827753384725},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3547614371800034,"totalBets":19,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3547614371800034,"error":0.3547614371800034},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4594497541696475,"totalBets":29,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4594497541696475,"error":0.4594497541696475},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5564801701537954,"totalBets":42,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5564801701537954,"error":0.5564801701537954},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6476073906227813,"totalBets":52,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6476073906227813,"error":0.6476073906227813},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7437861193802878,"totalBets":50,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7437861193802878,"error":0.7437861193802878},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8493730266752991,"totalBets":39,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8493730266752991,"error":0.8493730266752991},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9545536070623827,"totalBets":16,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9545536070623827,"error":0.9545536070623827}],"brierScore":0.4375,"calibrationError":0.6332,"resolvedBets":262,"overconfidenceBias":0.6332,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":16.1,"edge":-43.74},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.4368,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.7501,"logLoss":1.1932,"logLossSkill":-149.8935,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":1.8,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":2}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xe2a713a10ad4cc905c04631fbf761a42981182eb","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1776304150,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-16","walletAgeDays":4,"totalTransactions":2043,"uniqueCounterparties":2,"inboundTxCount":43,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":5564.67,"totalUsdcOut":5012.53,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":43,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":80,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.95,"medianTxIntervalSec":2804,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":43,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Very new wallet: 4 days old — possible sybil","Limited counterparties: only 2 unique addresses","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Wash trading signal: 95% of txs with single counterparty"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2043 txs","Significant USDC flow: $10,577","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:24:56.587Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":671.57,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xe2a713a10ad4cc905c04631fbf761a42981182eb","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":2900.39,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":113,"largestWithdrawal":135.9,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-17","fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:28:24.525Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 4 days, 2043 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 80/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $2,900 in / $0 out across 113 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-17.","1630 total trades across 289 markets.","262 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 63.3% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 16/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -75.0% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.4368 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 1.1932 (skill: -14989.3% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 1.8 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Weak Brier score: 0.4375","Overconfidence bias: 0.633","Brier Skill Score: -75.0% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Net loss: -$119 total PnL","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","On-chain: wallet only 4 days old on Polygon","On-chain: wash trading signal — 95% of txs with single counterparty"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 289 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T03:28:24.795Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}