{"wallet":"0xe5a328dbda2221131f1ce816ece1e50f37471050","displayName":"wakotv","pseudonym":"Itchy-Footnote","raw":{"totalTrades":721,"totalVolume":2751.79,"totalPnl":0,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":0,"winRate":0,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":183,"uniqueMarkets":215},"calibration":54,"profitability":40,"consistency":62,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":88,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":52,"trustGrade":"C","trustTier":"DEVELOPING","confidence":{"level":"medium","margin":8,"resolvedBets":183,"description":"C/52 ± 8 (medium confidence, 183 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.03400000264748391,"totalBets":5,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.03400000264748391,"error":0.03400000264748391},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.14442638664341642,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.14442638664341642,"error":0.14442638664341642},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2615306826542666,"totalBets":18,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.2615306826542666,"error":0.2615306826542666},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.35730436511523794,"totalBets":39,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.35730436511523794,"error":0.35730436511523794},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.47525688286458145,"totalBets":76,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.47525688286458145,"error":0.47525688286458145},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5316261753510312,"totalBets":31,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5316261753510312,"error":0.5316261753510312},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6285196951715012,"totalBets":5,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6285196951715012,"error":0.6285196951715012},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7477151693212214,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7477151693212214,"error":0.7477151693212214},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8160281450009657,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8160281450009657,"error":0.8160281450009657},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.94,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.94,"error":0.94}],"brierScore":0.2058,"calibrationError":0.4328,"resolvedBets":183,"overconfidenceBias":0.4328,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":8.1,"luck":16.5,"edge":-126.43},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2051,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":0.1768,"logLoss":0.6019,"logLossSkill":-75.1212,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":5.2,"earlyMoverPct":0.142,"timelinessScore":11}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xe5a328dbda2221131f1ce816ece1e50f37471050","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1774833874,"firstTxDate":"2026-03-30","walletAgeDays":21,"totalTransactions":1560,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1559,"totalUsdcIn":3166.98,"totalUsdcOut":3128.46,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":43,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Young wallet: only 21 days old","Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 1560 txs","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:41:23.027Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":null,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xe5a328dbda2221131f1ce816ece1e50f37471050","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":2014.35,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":254,"largestWithdrawal":44.86,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-01","fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:41:22.332Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 21 days, 1560 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $2,014 in / $0 out across 254 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-01.","721 total trades across 215 markets.","183 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 43.3% — needs improvement.","Skill: 8/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 17/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: 17.7% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2051 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.6019 (skill: -7512.1% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 5.2 days before resolution, 14% early mover."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.433","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market"],"greenFlags":["Brier Skill Score: 17.7% better than naive baseline","Well-diversified: 215 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T03:41:24.327Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}