{"wallet":"0xe5c9658f0efdb1551b1bc10f81ad160b60de5d61","displayName":"xt-01","pseudonym":"Wasteful-Usher-Backpack","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":28706.25,"totalPnl":-300.24,"realizedPnl":-216.47,"unrealizedPnl":-83.78,"winRate":0,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":115,"uniqueMarkets":110},"calibration":23,"profitability":38,"consistency":85,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":88,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":48,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"medium","margin":8,"resolvedBets":115,"description":"D/48 [CI95: D→D, 47-49] (115 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":47,"scoreHigh":49,"gradeLow":"INS","gradeHigh":"INS","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":true}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.06,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.06,"error":0.06},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2557971186106177,"totalBets":3,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.2557971186106177,"error":0.2557971186106177},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.36674104415274095,"totalBets":3,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.36674104415274095,"error":0.36674104415274095},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.46750289848817944,"totalBets":31,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.46750289848817944,"error":0.46750289848817944},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5423567123023758,"totalBets":56,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5423567123023758,"error":0.5423567123023758},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6365967098158899,"totalBets":10,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6365967098158899,"error":0.6365967098158899},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7573232854498547,"totalBets":7,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7573232854498547,"error":0.7573232854498547},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8059853539721105,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8059853539721105,"error":0.8059853539721105},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.975,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.975,"error":0.975}],"brierScore":0.3061,"calibrationError":0.5393,"resolvedBets":115,"overconfidenceBias":0.5393,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":25.7,"edge":-91.82},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.3054,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.2243,"logLoss":0.8433,"logLossSkill":-105.6483,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":1.3,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":1}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xe5c9658f0efdb1551b1bc10f81ad160b60de5d61","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1782179606,"firstTxDate":"2026-06-23","walletAgeDays":8,"totalTransactions":2000,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":0,"totalUsdcIn":0,"totalUsdcOut":0,"protocolsUsed":[],"uniqueContractsInteracted":1,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":30,"provenanceGrade":"D","flags":["Young wallet: only 8 days old","Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-07-01T05:12:45.758Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":null,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xe5c9658f0efdb1551b1bc10f81ad160b60de5d61","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":0,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":0,"largestWithdrawal":0,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"never","fetchedAt":"2026-07-01T05:12:45.863Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 8 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade D. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.","3100 total trades across 110 markets.","115 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 53.9% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 26/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -22.4% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.3054 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.8433 (skill: -10564.8% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 1.3 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.539","Brier Skill Score: -22.4% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Net loss: -$300 total PnL","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","young_wallet: Wallet is only 0 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 110 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-07-01T05:12:52.660Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":false,"ageFactor":0,"reason":"Wallet is only 0 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)","ageDaysUsed":0}}