{"wallet":"0xe6940b14e6652d9f2c6b774e3eb4b35ceeee7e7c","displayName":"4-testfollower-hm7","pseudonym":"Steep-Treat","raw":{"totalTrades":944,"totalVolume":10961.48,"totalPnl":19.98,"realizedPnl":21.49,"unrealizedPnl":-1.51,"winRate":0.167,"openPositions":70,"resolvedBets":204,"uniqueMarkets":202},"calibration":52,"profitability":40,"consistency":60,"discipline":89,"sampleSize":88,"liveEdge":61,"trustScore":25,"trustGrade":"F","trustTier":"DANGER","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":204,"description":"F/25 [CI95: F→F, 22-27] (204 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":22,"scoreHigh":27,"gradeLow":"F","gradeHigh":"F","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":false}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.02273780487804874,"totalBets":164,"correctBets":24,"actualRate":0.14634146341463414,"expectedRate":0.02273780487804874,"error":0.12360365853658539},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.13159285714285712,"totalBets":28,"correctBets":6,"actualRate":0.21428571428571427,"expectedRate":0.13159285714285712,"error":0.08269285714285715},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.24499999999999997,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":4,"actualRate":0.6666666666666666,"expectedRate":0.24499999999999997,"error":0.42166666666666663},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3333,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3333,"error":0.3333},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.99,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.99,"error":0.99}],"brierScore":0.17,"calibrationError":0.1458,"resolvedBets":204,"overconfidenceBias":-0.1004,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":43.9,"luck":100,"edge":-9.04},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.0388,"resolution":0.0088,"uncertainty":0.1389},"brierSkillScore":-0.2238,"logLoss":0.703,"logLossSkill":-0.5604,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xe6940b14e6652d9f2c6b774e3eb4b35ceeee7e7c","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1762796486,"firstTxDate":"2025-11-10","walletAgeDays":232,"totalTransactions":2473,"uniqueCounterparties":34,"inboundTxCount":473,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1983,"totalUsdcIn":5139.57,"totalUsdcOut":5108.44,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":19,"contractInteractions":473,"botScore":30,"washTradingScore":20,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.91,"medianTxIntervalSec":484,"burstTxCount":95,"provenanceScore":78,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Possible automated trading: 95 burst txs"],"greenFlags":["Wallet age: 232 days","Heavy on-chain activity: 2473 txs","Significant USDC flow: $10,248"],"fetchedAt":"2026-07-01T04:03:13.663Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":11.15,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xe6940b14e6652d9f2c6b774e3eb4b35ceeee7e7c","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":521.66,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":1098.68,"withdrawalTxCount":27,"largestWithdrawal":131.86,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2025-12-10","fetchedAt":"2026-07-01T04:08:10.768Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 232 days, 2473 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 30/100, wash trading score: 20/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $522 in / $1,099 out across 27 withdrawal tx since 2025-12-10.","944 total trades across 202 markets.","204 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 14.6% — good.","Skill: 44/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 100/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -22.4% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.0388 RES=0.0088 UNC=0.1389.","Log loss: 0.7030 (skill: -56.0% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["High luck component: 100/100 — returns may not persist","Brier Skill Score: -22.4% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Penny-lottery strategy: 80% of bets at sub-$0.10 — score penalized by 30 pts","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Low win rate: 17%","On-chain: possible automated trading (bot score: 30)"],"greenFlags":["Strong Brier score: 0.17","Conservative (underconfident) bias","Net profitable: +$20 total PnL","Well-diversified: 202 unique markets","On-chain: 232-day wallet history on Polygon"],"scoredAt":"2026-07-01T04:08:10.964Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":true,"ageFactor":0.584821480549484,"reason":"Wallet age 194d → difficulty factor 0.58","ageDaysUsed":194}}