{"wallet":"0xe8dd7741ccb12350957ec71e9ee332e0d1e6ec86","displayName":"influenz.eth","pseudonym":"Real-Veteran","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":411925.94,"totalPnl":1087208.28,"realizedPnl":1134802.23,"unrealizedPnl":-47593.95,"winRate":0.002,"openPositions":28,"resolvedBets":972,"uniqueMarkets":693},"calibration":98,"profitability":100,"consistency":74,"discipline":92,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":97,"trustScore":97,"trustGrade":"A","trustTier":"SHARP","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":972,"description":"A/97 ± 3 (high confidence, 972 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.011245020746887834,"totalBets":964,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.011245020746887834,"error":0.011245020746887834},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.13626666666666667,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.13626666666666667,"error":0.13626666666666667},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8293,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":1,"expectedRate":0.8293,"error":0.17069999999999996}],"brierScore":0.0003,"calibrationError":0.0123,"resolvedBets":972,"overconfidenceBias":0.0116,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":58.8,"luck":28.9,"edge":-18.69},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.0003,"resolution":0.0021,"uncertainty":0.0021},"brierSkillScore":0.8399,"logLoss":0.0125,"logLossSkill":0.1531,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xe8dd7741ccb12350957ec71e9ee332e0d1e6ec86","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1737897251,"firstTxDate":"2025-01-26","walletAgeDays":448,"totalTransactions":2847,"uniqueCounterparties":13,"inboundTxCount":847,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1987,"totalUsdcIn":50643.01,"totalUsdcOut":40818.46,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":11,"contractInteractions":847,"botScore":25,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.1,"medianTxIntervalSec":52,"burstTxCount":90,"provenanceScore":78,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction"],"greenFlags":["Wallet age: 448 days (mature)","Heavy on-chain activity: 2847 txs","Significant USDC flow: $91,461","Diverse trading network: 13 counterparties"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T04:22:12.120Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":1077383.73,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xe8dd7741ccb12350957ec71e9ee332e0d1e6ec86","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":0,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":0,"largestWithdrawal":0,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"never","fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T04:22:12.135Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 448 days, 2847 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 25/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.","3100 total trades across 693 markets.","972 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 1.2% — excellent.","Skill: 59/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 29/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: 84.0% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.0003 RES=0.0021 UNC=0.0021.","Log loss: 0.0125 (skill: 15.3% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Low win rate: 0%","PnL divergence: $1077384 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows"],"greenFlags":["Strong Brier score: 0.0003","Brier Skill Score: 84.0% better than naive baseline","Log loss skill: 15.3% better than naive (rare-event sensitive)","Proven track record bonus: +8 pts (972 resolved bets, positive BSS, profitable)","Strong live edge: 28 open positions trending profitable","Net profitable: +$1087208 total PnL","Well-diversified: 693 unique markets","On-chain: 448-day wallet history on Polygon","On-chain: diverse counterparty network"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T04:22:16.515Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}