{"wallet":"0xe9076a87c5ed90ef16e6fe6529c943baeca0cff6","displayName":"Trader 0xe9076a...","pseudonym":"","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":94893.49,"totalPnl":-77441.59,"realizedPnl":-14193.6,"unrealizedPnl":-63248,"winRate":0.085,"openPositions":110,"resolvedBets":890,"uniqueMarkets":443},"calibration":40,"profitability":0,"consistency":55,"discipline":96,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":59,"trustScore":15,"trustGrade":"F","trustTier":"DANGER","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":890,"description":"F/15 ± 3 (high confidence, 890 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.017516155988857814,"totalBets":718,"correctBets":42,"actualRate":0.0584958217270195,"expectedRate":0.017516155988857814,"error":0.04097966573816168},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.12986153846153847,"totalBets":26,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.07692307692307693,"expectedRate":0.12986153846153847,"error":0.052938461538461545},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.23694545454545454,"totalBets":22,"correctBets":4,"actualRate":0.18181818181818182,"expectedRate":0.23694545454545454,"error":0.05512727272727272},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.34595000000000004,"totalBets":8,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.34595000000000004,"error":0.34595000000000004},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.44885,"totalBets":28,"correctBets":10,"actualRate":0.35714285714285715,"expectedRate":0.44885,"error":0.09170714285714288},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5389999999999999,"totalBets":12,"correctBets":6,"actualRate":0.5,"expectedRate":0.5389999999999999,"error":0.038999999999999924},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6472,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":4,"actualRate":0.6666666666666666,"expectedRate":0.6472,"error":0.019466666666666632},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8371333333333334,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.3333333333333333,"expectedRate":0.8371333333333334,"error":0.5038},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9791906250000004,"totalBets":64,"correctBets":6,"actualRate":0.09375,"expectedRate":0.9791906250000004,"error":0.8854406250000004}],"brierScore":0.1326,"calibrationError":0.1097,"resolvedBets":890,"overconfidenceBias":0.0433,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":48.2,"luck":100,"edge":-21.55},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.061,"resolution":0.0082,"uncertainty":0.0781},"brierSkillScore":-0.6973,"logLoss":0.571,"logLossSkill":-0.9571,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xe9076a87c5ed90ef16e6fe6529c943baeca0cff6","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1773421573,"firstTxDate":"2026-03-13","walletAgeDays":40,"totalTransactions":3000,"uniqueCounterparties":30,"inboundTxCount":1000,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1998,"totalUsdcIn":521099.3,"totalUsdcOut":30726.4,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":4,"contractInteractions":1000,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.05,"medianTxIntervalSec":232,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":68,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 3000 txs","Significant USDC flow: $551,826","Human-like transaction patterns","Diverse trading network: 30 counterparties"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-23T03:01:05.241Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":567814.49,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xe9076a87c5ed90ef16e6fe6529c943baeca0cff6","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":17136.81,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":343,"largestWithdrawal":753.89,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-03-19","fetchedAt":"2026-04-23T03:01:04.385Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 40 days, 3000 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $17,137 in / $0 out across 343 withdrawal tx since 2026-03-19.","3100 total trades across 443 markets.","890 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 11.0% — good.","Skill: 48/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 100/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -69.7% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.0610 RES=0.0082 UNC=0.0781.","Log loss: 0.5710 (skill: -95.7% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["High luck component: 100/100 — returns may not persist","Brier Skill Score: -69.7% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Penny-lottery strategy: 81% of bets at sub-$0.10 — score penalized by 30 pts","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Net loss: -$77442 total PnL","Low win rate: 9%","PnL divergence: $567814 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows"],"greenFlags":["Strong Brier score: 0.1326","Well-diversified: 443 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns","On-chain: diverse counterparty network","On-chain: $17,137 total USDC.e received from Polymarket contracts across 343 tx (Polygon)"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-23T03:01:11.142Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}