{"wallet":"0xead152b855effa6b5b5837f53b24c0756830c76a","displayName":"elkmonkey","pseudonym":"Unconscious-Penguin","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":741933.95,"totalPnl":158368.3,"realizedPnl":-14976.1,"unrealizedPnl":173344.4,"winRate":0.269,"openPositions":88,"resolvedBets":145,"uniqueMarkets":147},"calibration":40,"profitability":83,"consistency":30,"discipline":82,"sampleSize":88,"liveEdge":59,"trustScore":60,"trustGrade":"C","trustTier":"DEVELOPING","confidence":{"level":"medium","margin":8,"resolvedBets":145,"description":"C/60 [CI95: C→C, 58-62] (145 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":58,"scoreHigh":62,"gradeLow":"C","gradeHigh":"C","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":false}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.04382669841823058,"totalBets":24,"correctBets":9,"actualRate":0.375,"expectedRate":0.04382669841823058,"error":0.33117330158176944},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.15990888646327509,"totalBets":10,"correctBets":4,"actualRate":0.4,"expectedRate":0.15990888646327509,"error":0.24009111353672494},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.24997401719800436,"totalBets":7,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.14285714285714285,"expectedRate":0.24997401719800436,"error":0.1071168743408615},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.35468904900681664,"totalBets":17,"correctBets":5,"actualRate":0.29411764705882354,"expectedRate":0.35468904900681664,"error":0.0605714019479931},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.45650064033292354,"totalBets":46,"correctBets":5,"actualRate":0.10869565217391304,"expectedRate":0.45650064033292354,"error":0.3478049881590105},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.544635360356507,"totalBets":24,"correctBets":6,"actualRate":0.25,"expectedRate":0.544635360356507,"error":0.29463536035650695},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6468493123575575,"totalBets":9,"correctBets":5,"actualRate":0.5555555555555556,"expectedRate":0.6468493123575575,"error":0.09129375680200191},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.75,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.3333333333333333,"expectedRate":0.75,"error":0.4166666666666667},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8481500000000001,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":1,"expectedRate":0.8481500000000001,"error":0.15184999999999993}],"brierScore":0.2514,"calibrationError":0.2678,"resolvedBets":145,"overconfidenceBias":0.1208,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":31.8,"luck":98.1,"edge":-46.49},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.0839,"resolution":0.0247,"uncertainty":0.1966},"brierSkillScore":-0.2787,"logLoss":0.7484,"logLossSkill":-0.2854,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":4,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":4}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xead152b855effa6b5b5837f53b24c0756830c76a","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1738443535,"firstTxDate":"2025-02-01","walletAgeDays":450,"totalTransactions":2000,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1964,"totalUsdcIn":107752.42,"totalUsdcOut":106657.96,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":33,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":68,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Wallet age: 450 days (mature)","Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs","Significant USDC flow: $214,410","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-28T10:23:44.538Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":157273.84,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xead152b855effa6b5b5837f53b24c0756830c76a","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":4421.89,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":3,"largestWithdrawal":4324.07,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2025-02-14","fetchedAt":"2026-04-28T10:23:44.435Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 450 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $4,422 in / $0 out across 3 withdrawal tx since 2025-02-14.","3100 total trades across 147 markets.","145 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 26.8% — needs improvement.","Skill: 32/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 98/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -27.9% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.0839 RES=0.0247 UNC=0.1966.","Log loss: 0.7484 (skill: -28.5% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 4.0 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.121","High luck component: 98/100 — returns may not persist","Brier Skill Score: -27.9% — performing worse than naive baseline","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Low win rate: 27%","PnL divergence: $157274 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows"],"greenFlags":["Net profitable: +$158368 total PnL","Well-diversified: 147 unique markets","On-chain: 450-day wallet history on Polygon","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-28T10:23:45.669Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":true,"ageFactor":0.8428074315291516,"reason":"Wallet age 442d → difficulty factor 0.84","ageDaysUsed":442}}