{"wallet":"0xeb6f3b008fb1601c0cc9ed57ceb56c9e6f9e5597","displayName":"fastlifefastprofit","pseudonym":"Circular-Supermarket","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":21272.81,"totalPnl":-43554.85,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":-43554.85,"winRate":0,"openPositions":2,"resolvedBets":998,"uniqueMarkets":233},"calibration":29,"profitability":0,"consistency":91,"discipline":75,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":59,"trustScore":45,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":998,"description":"D/45 [CI95: D→D, 44-46] (998 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":44,"scoreHigh":46,"gradeLow":"INS","gradeHigh":"INS","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":true}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.051521739130434785,"totalBets":46,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.051521739130434785,"error":0.051521739130434785},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.1421535714285714,"totalBets":56,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.1421535714285714,"error":0.1421535714285714},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2537547169811322,"totalBets":106,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.2537547169811322,"error":0.2537547169811322},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3524877192982457,"totalBets":114,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3524877192982457,"error":0.3524877192982457},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4532420560747662,"totalBets":214,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4532420560747662,"error":0.4532420560747662},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5421940000000004,"totalBets":200,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5421940000000004,"error":0.5421940000000004},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6425454545454543,"totalBets":110,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6425454545454543,"error":0.6425454545454543},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.747541463414634,"totalBets":82,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.747541463414634,"error":0.747541463414634},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.845786363636364,"totalBets":44,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.845786363636364,"error":0.845786363636364},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9461999999999999,"totalBets":26,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9461999999999999,"error":0.9461999999999999}],"brierScore":0.2724,"calibrationError":0.4776,"resolvedBets":998,"overconfidenceBias":0.4776,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":2.7,"luck":24.4,"edge":-75.81},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2715,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.0895,"logLoss":0.7734,"logLossSkill":-96.803,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xeb6f3b008fb1601c0cc9ed57ceb56c9e6f9e5597","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1781784400,"firstTxDate":"2026-06-18","walletAgeDays":11,"totalTransactions":2001,"uniqueCounterparties":1,"inboundTxCount":1,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"129.750000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"129.750000","usdcTransfers":23,"totalUsdcIn":7198.52,"totalUsdcOut":5898.71,"protocolsUsed":["USDC","USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":80,"topCounterpartyConcentration":1,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":51,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Young wallet: only 11 days old","Limited counterparties: only 1 unique addresses","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers","Wash trading signal: 100% of txs with single counterparty"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2001 txs","Significant USDC flow: $13,097","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-06-30T11:47:45.177Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":44854.66,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xeb6f3b008fb1601c0cc9ed57ceb56c9e6f9e5597","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":0,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":0,"largestWithdrawal":0,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"never","fetchedAt":"2026-06-30T11:49:48.967Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 11 days, 2001 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 80/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.","3100 total trades across 233 markets.","998 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 47.8% — needs improvement.","Skill: 3/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 24/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -8.9% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2715 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.7734 (skill: -9680.3% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.478","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Net loss: -$43555 total PnL","Low win rate: 0%","PnL divergence: $44855 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows","On-chain: wash trading signal — 100% of txs with single counterparty","young_wallet: Wallet is only 11 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 233 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-06-30T11:49:51.065Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":false,"ageFactor":0,"reason":"Wallet is only 11 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)","ageDaysUsed":11}}