{"wallet":"0xee76f2786eb12c3d04e97ae67825d0862f97e67a","displayName":"Somber-Bee","pseudonym":"Somber-Bee","raw":{"totalTrades":651,"totalVolume":564325.34,"totalPnl":-210,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":-210,"winRate":0,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":12,"uniqueMarkets":401},"calibration":78,"profitability":40,"consistency":0,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":40,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":39,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"very_low","margin":25,"resolvedBets":12,"description":"INS (12 resolved bets — insufficient data for grade CI)","ci95":{"scoreLow":14,"scoreHigh":64,"gradeLow":"INS","gradeHigh":"INS","iterations":0,"insufficientData":true}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.08579367784956005,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.08579367784956005,"error":0.08579367784956005},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.12500000014166665,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.12500000014166665,"error":0.12500000014166665},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2550000002556947,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.2550000002556947,"error":0.2550000002556947},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3800000008819868,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3800000008819868,"error":0.3800000008819868},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4200000012821221,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4200000012821221,"error":0.4200000012821221},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.525,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.525,"error":0.525}],"brierScore":0.0775,"calibrationError":0.2442,"resolvedBets":12,"overconfidenceBias":0.2442,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":30.7,"luck":17.2,"edge":-382.17},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.0772,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":0.6899,"logLoss":0.2976,"logLossSkill":-36.6412,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":14.7,"earlyMoverPct":0.455,"timelinessScore":33}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xee76f2786eb12c3d04e97ae67825d0862f97e67a","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1759693499,"firstTxDate":"2025-10-05","walletAgeDays":202,"totalTransactions":932,"uniqueCounterparties":29,"inboundTxCount":91,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":838,"totalUsdcIn":363702.05,"totalUsdcOut":363268.9,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":5,"contractInteractions":91,"botScore":10,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.07,"medianTxIntervalSec":68722,"burstTxCount":7,"provenanceScore":78,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction"],"greenFlags":["Wallet age: 202 days","Heavy on-chain activity: 932 txs","Significant USDC flow: $726,971","Human-like transaction patterns","Diverse trading network: 29 counterparties"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-26T08:53:36.337Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":643.15,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xee76f2786eb12c3d04e97ae67825d0862f97e67a","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":77762.16,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":73,"largestWithdrawal":18082.81,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2025-10-12","fetchedAt":"2026-04-26T08:53:36.194Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 202 days, 932 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 10/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $77,762 in / $0 out across 73 withdrawal tx since 2025-10-12.","651 total trades across 401 markets.","12 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 24.4% — needs improvement.","Skill: 31/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 17/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: 69.0% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.0772 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.2976 (skill: -3664.1% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 14.7 days before resolution, 46% early mover."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.244","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Net loss: -$210 total PnL","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","On-chain coverage gap: 73 Polymarket USDC withdrawals observed, but only 12 resolved bets recovered from data-api + CLOB. Grade based on a subset of the wallet's forecasting history."],"greenFlags":["Strong Brier score: 0.0775","Brier Skill Score: 69.0% better than naive baseline","Well-diversified: 401 unique markets","On-chain: 202-day wallet history on Polygon","On-chain: human-like trading patterns","On-chain: diverse counterparty network","On-chain: $77,762 total USDC.e received from Polymarket contracts across 73 tx (Polygon)"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-26T08:53:37.134Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":true,"ageFactor":0.3578170714472845,"reason":"Wallet age 94d → difficulty factor 0.36","ageDaysUsed":94}}