{"wallet":"0xeea3f08e8a36081233e4c4b4142fd61a7b56a6a2","displayName":"thestingsnake","pseudonym":"Cumbersome-Dock-Shield","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":147754.96,"totalPnl":-30924.84,"realizedPnl":-3227.85,"unrealizedPnl":-27696.99,"winRate":0.011,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":188,"uniqueMarkets":51},"calibration":0,"profitability":0,"consistency":58,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":88,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":30,"trustGrade":"F","trustTier":"DANGER","confidence":{"level":"medium","margin":8,"resolvedBets":188,"description":"F/30 [CI95: F→F, 27-33] (188 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":27,"scoreHigh":33,"gradeLow":"INS","gradeHigh":"INS","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":true}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.05036153846153846,"totalBets":26,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.05036153846153846,"error":0.05036153846153846},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.15473076923076926,"totalBets":26,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.15473076923076926,"error":0.15473076923076926},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.260475,"totalBets":16,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.260475,"error":0.260475},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.36205,"totalBets":8,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.36205,"error":0.36205},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.43216250000000006,"totalBets":16,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.43216250000000006,"error":0.43216250000000006},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5485571428571429,"totalBets":14,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.14285714285714285,"expectedRate":0.5485571428571429,"error":0.4057},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6797,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6797,"error":0.6797},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.760675,"totalBets":16,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.760675,"error":0.760675},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8658166666666668,"totalBets":24,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8658166666666668,"error":0.8658166666666668},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9521473684210527,"totalBets":38,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9521473684210527,"error":0.9521473684210527}],"brierScore":0.3912,"calibrationError":0.5151,"resolvedBets":188,"overconfidenceBias":0.5151,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0.2,"luck":42.8,"edge":-38.13},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.3812,"resolution":0.0014,"uncertainty":0.0105},"brierSkillScore":-36.1661,"logLoss":1.2623,"logLossSkill":-20.4265,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xeea3f08e8a36081233e4c4b4142fd61a7b56a6a2","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1779570682,"firstTxDate":"2026-05-23","walletAgeDays":39,"totalTransactions":2000,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":0,"totalUsdcIn":0,"totalUsdcOut":0,"protocolsUsed":[],"uniqueContractsInteracted":1,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":35,"provenanceGrade":"D","flags":["Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-07-02T20:18:25.781Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":null,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xeea3f08e8a36081233e4c4b4142fd61a7b56a6a2","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":0,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":0,"largestWithdrawal":0,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"never","fetchedAt":"2026-07-02T20:18:25.457Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 39 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade D. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.","3100 total trades across 51 markets.","188 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 51.5% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 43/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -3616.6% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.3812 RES=0.0014 UNC=0.0105.","Log loss: 1.2623 (skill: -2042.7% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Weak Brier score: 0.3912","Overconfidence bias: 0.515","Brier Skill Score: -3616.6% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Net loss: -$30925 total PnL","Low win rate: 1%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","young_wallet: Wallet is only 0 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 51 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-07-02T20:18:33.174Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":false,"ageFactor":0,"reason":"Wallet is only 0 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)","ageDaysUsed":0}}