{"wallet":"0xeebde7a0e019a63e6b476eb425505b7b3e6eba30","displayName":"Bonereaper","pseudonym":"Popular-Insurrection","raw":{"totalTrades":5000,"totalVolume":54858.52,"totalPnl":-112653.19,"realizedPnl":317.53,"unrealizedPnl":-112970.72,"winRate":0.026,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":1000,"uniqueMarkets":275},"calibration":0,"profitability":0,"consistency":59,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":32,"trustGrade":"F","trustTier":"DANGER","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":1000,"description":"F/32 [CI95: F→F, 31-33] (1000 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":31,"scoreHigh":33,"gradeLow":"F","gradeHigh":"F","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":false}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.046251724137931036,"totalBets":116,"correctBets":6,"actualRate":0.05172413793103448,"expectedRate":0.046251724137931036,"error":0.005472413793103446},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.14661805555555552,"totalBets":144,"correctBets":4,"actualRate":0.027777777777777776,"expectedRate":0.14661805555555552,"error":0.11884027777777774},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2431568181818182,"totalBets":88,"correctBets":8,"actualRate":0.09090909090909091,"expectedRate":0.2431568181818182,"error":0.15224772727272728},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.337782142857143,"totalBets":56,"correctBets":4,"actualRate":0.07142857142857142,"expectedRate":0.337782142857143,"error":0.2663535714285715},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.45075000000000004,"totalBets":48,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.45075000000000004,"error":0.45075000000000004},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5599695652173914,"totalBets":46,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5599695652173914,"error":0.5599695652173914},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6517809523809523,"totalBets":42,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6517809523809523,"error":0.6517809523809523},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7658818181818182,"totalBets":110,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7658818181818182,"error":0.7658818181818182},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8478666666666662,"totalBets":198,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.010101010101010102,"expectedRate":0.8478666666666662,"error":0.8377656565656562},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.952767105263158,"totalBets":152,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.013157894736842105,"expectedRate":0.952767105263158,"error":0.9396092105263159}],"brierScore":0.413,"calibrationError":0.5138,"resolvedBets":1000,"overconfidenceBias":0.5125,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0.1,"luck":100,"edge":-42.05},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.3878,"resolution":0.0008,"uncertainty":0.0253},"brierSkillScore":-15.3102,"logLoss":1.2534,"logLossSkill":-9.3973,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xeebde7a0e019a63e6b476eb425505b7b3e6eba30","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1774419955,"firstTxDate":"2026-03-25","walletAgeDays":123,"totalTransactions":2000,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":2000,"totalUsdcIn":67700.75,"totalUsdcOut":43615.97,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":1,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":58,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs","Significant USDC flow: $111,317","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-07-26T11:41:31.171Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":136737.97,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xeebde7a0e019a63e6b476eb425505b7b3e6eba30","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":39621.72,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":29,"largestWithdrawal":4649.23,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-03-25","fetchedAt":"2026-07-26T11:41:31.044Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 123 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $39,622 in / $0 out across 29 withdrawal tx since 2026-03-25.","5000 total trades across 275 markets.","1000 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 51.4% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 100/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -1531.0% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.3878 RES=0.0008 UNC=0.0253.","Log loss: 1.2534 (skill: -939.7% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Weak Brier score: 0.413","Overconfidence bias: 0.512","High luck component: 100/100 — returns may not persist","Brier Skill Score: -1531.0% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Net loss: -$112653 total PnL","Low win rate: 3%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","PnL divergence: $136738 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 275 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns","On-chain: $39,622 total USDC.e received from Polymarket contracts across 29 tx (Polygon)"],"scoredAt":"2026-07-26T11:41:37.123Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":true,"ageFactor":0.4420596934329481,"reason":"Wallet age 123d → difficulty factor 0.44","ageDaysUsed":123}}