{"wallet":"0xeebde7a0e019a63e6b476eb425505b7b3e6eba30","displayName":"Bonereaper","pseudonym":"Popular-Insurrection","raw":{"totalTrades":5000,"totalVolume":166197.55,"totalPnl":-136254.7,"realizedPnl":-1070.53,"unrealizedPnl":-135184.17,"winRate":0,"openPositions":2,"resolvedBets":998,"uniqueMarkets":414},"calibration":13,"profitability":0,"consistency":60,"discipline":75,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":100,"trustScore":50,"trustGrade":"C","trustTier":"DEVELOPING","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":998,"description":"C/50 [CI95: D→C, 49-51] (998 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":49,"scoreHigh":51,"gradeLow":"D","gradeHigh":"C","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":false}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.046770909090909085,"totalBets":110,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.046770909090909085,"error":0.046770909090909085},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.14623124999999998,"totalBets":128,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.14623124999999998,"error":0.14623124999999998},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.24712325581395345,"totalBets":86,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.24712325581395345,"error":0.24712325581395345},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.34241842105263176,"totalBets":76,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.34241842105263176,"error":0.34241842105263176},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.442183870967742,"totalBets":62,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.442183870967742,"error":0.442183870967742},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5591727272727272,"totalBets":66,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5591727272727272,"error":0.5591727272727272},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6473541666666666,"totalBets":48,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6473541666666666,"error":0.6473541666666666},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7653117647058822,"totalBets":102,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7653117647058822,"error":0.7653117647058822},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8486155555555557,"totalBets":180,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8486155555555557,"error":0.8486155555555557},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9530042857142857,"totalBets":140,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9530042857142857,"error":0.9530042857142857}],"brierScore":0.3881,"calibrationError":0.5318,"resolvedBets":998,"overconfidenceBias":0.5318,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":100,"edge":-50.94},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.3873,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.5524,"logLoss":1.1795,"logLossSkill":-148.1684,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xeebde7a0e019a63e6b476eb425505b7b3e6eba30","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1774419955,"firstTxDate":"2026-03-25","walletAgeDays":169,"totalTransactions":1000,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1000,"totalUsdcIn":28079.03,"totalUsdcOut":20353.55,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":1,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":58,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 1000 txs","Significant USDC flow: $48,433","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-09-10T15:52:41.324Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":143980.18,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xeebde7a0e019a63e6b476eb425505b7b3e6eba30","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":0,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":0,"largestWithdrawal":0,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"never","fetchedAt":"2026-09-10T15:52:41.002Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 169 days, 1000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.","5000 total trades across 414 markets.","998 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 53.2% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 100/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -55.2% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.3873 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 1.1795 (skill: -14816.8% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Weak Brier score: 0.3881","Overconfidence bias: 0.532","High luck component: 100/100 — returns may not persist","Brier Skill Score: -55.2% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Net loss: -$136255 total PnL","Low win rate: 0%","PnL divergence: $143980 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 414 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-09-10T15:52:48.380Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":true,"ageFactor":0.7,"reason":"Wallet age unknown; 998 resolved bets supply enough PoW to grade (factor 0.70)","ageDaysUsed":null}}