{"wallet":"0xeebde7a0e019a63e6b476eb425505b7b3e6eba30","displayName":"Bonereaper","pseudonym":"Popular-Insurrection","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":72440.28,"totalPnl":-5899.67,"realizedPnl":700.58,"unrealizedPnl":-6600.26,"winRate":0.44,"openPositions":20,"resolvedBets":250,"uniqueMarkets":99},"calibration":42,"profitability":24,"consistency":0,"discipline":87,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":21,"trustScore":38,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":250,"description":"D/38 ± 3 (high confidence, 250 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.03146666666666666,"totalBets":30,"correctBets":20,"actualRate":0.6666666666666666,"expectedRate":0.03146666666666666,"error":0.6352},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.1425,"totalBets":24,"correctBets":8,"actualRate":0.3333333333333333,"expectedRate":0.1425,"error":0.19083333333333333},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.24723199999999995,"totalBets":50,"correctBets":20,"actualRate":0.4,"expectedRate":0.24723199999999995,"error":0.15276800000000007},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3525192307692308,"totalBets":52,"correctBets":18,"actualRate":0.34615384615384615,"expectedRate":0.3525192307692308,"error":0.006365384615384662},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4426,"totalBets":20,"correctBets":8,"actualRate":0.4,"expectedRate":0.4426,"error":0.04259999999999997},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5359833333333334,"totalBets":12,"correctBets":8,"actualRate":0.6666666666666666,"expectedRate":0.5359833333333334,"error":0.13068333333333326},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6597857142857143,"totalBets":14,"correctBets":6,"actualRate":0.42857142857142855,"expectedRate":0.6597857142857143,"error":0.23121428571428576},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7580416666666666,"totalBets":24,"correctBets":10,"actualRate":0.4166666666666667,"expectedRate":0.7580416666666666,"error":0.34137499999999993},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8471000000000002,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.3333333333333333,"expectedRate":0.8471000000000002,"error":0.5137666666666669},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9585333333333332,"totalBets":18,"correctBets":10,"actualRate":0.5555555555555556,"expectedRate":0.9585333333333332,"error":0.40297777777777766}],"brierScore":0.327,"calibrationError":0.2232,"resolvedBets":250,"overconfidenceBias":-0.0396,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":35.3,"luck":100,"edge":-2.14},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.0898,"resolution":0.0133,"uncertainty":0.2464},"brierSkillScore":-0.3272,"logLoss":1.0134,"logLossSkill":-0.4774,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xeebde7a0e019a63e6b476eb425505b7b3e6eba30","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1774419955,"firstTxDate":"2026-03-25","walletAgeDays":25,"totalTransactions":2000,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":2000,"totalUsdcIn":67700.75,"totalUsdcOut":43615.97,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":1,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":48,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Young wallet: only 25 days old","Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs","Significant USDC flow: $111,317","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:14:35.682Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":29984.45,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xeebde7a0e019a63e6b476eb425505b7b3e6eba30","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":39621.72,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":29,"largestWithdrawal":4649.23,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-03-25","fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:14:34.454Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 25 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $39,622 in / $0 out across 29 withdrawal tx since 2026-03-25.","3100 total trades across 99 markets.","250 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 22.3% — needs improvement.","Skill: 35/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 100/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -32.7% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.0898 RES=0.0133 UNC=0.2464.","Log loss: 1.0134 (skill: -47.7% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["High luck component: 100/100 — returns may not persist","Brier Skill Score: -32.7% — performing worse than naive baseline","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Weak live edge: open positions mostly underwater","Net loss: -$5900 total PnL","PnL divergence: $29984 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 99 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns","On-chain: $39,622 total USDC.e received from Polymarket contracts across 29 tx (Polygon)"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T03:14:40.432Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","cached":true,"cachedAt":1776654880432}