{"wallet":"0xeebde7a0e019a63e6b476eb425505b7b3e6eba30","displayName":"Bonereaper","pseudonym":"Popular-Insurrection","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":44224.48,"totalPnl":-6421.59,"realizedPnl":1833.03,"unrealizedPnl":-8254.63,"winRate":0.17,"openPositions":16,"resolvedBets":94,"uniqueMarkets":63},"calibration":11,"profitability":11,"consistency":52,"discipline":86,"sampleSize":75,"liveEdge":50,"trustScore":39,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"medium","margin":8,"resolvedBets":94,"description":"D/39 [CI95: D→D, 36-42] (94 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":36,"scoreHigh":42,"gradeLow":"D","gradeHigh":"D","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":false}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.019520000000000003,"totalBets":10,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.2,"expectedRate":0.019520000000000003,"error":0.18048},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.15886999999999998,"totalBets":20,"correctBets":4,"actualRate":0.2,"expectedRate":0.15886999999999998,"error":0.04113000000000003},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2693125,"totalBets":16,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.125,"expectedRate":0.2693125,"error":0.1443125},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3432666666666666,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":4,"actualRate":0.6666666666666666,"expectedRate":0.3432666666666666,"error":0.3234},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.44465,"totalBets":8,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.44465,"error":0.44465},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5593250000000001,"totalBets":8,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5593250000000001,"error":0.5593250000000001},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6711,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6711,"error":0.6711},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7603500000000001,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7603500000000001,"error":0.7603500000000001},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8335,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8335,"error":0.8335},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9647625,"totalBets":16,"correctBets":4,"actualRate":0.25,"expectedRate":0.9647625,"error":0.7147625}],"brierScore":0.3164,"calibrationError":0.3589,"resolvedBets":94,"overconfidenceBias":0.2617,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":21,"luck":91.7,"edge":-58.42},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.203,"resolution":0.0255,"uncertainty":0.1412},"brierSkillScore":-1.2402,"logLoss":1.0351,"logLossSkill":-1.2688,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xeebde7a0e019a63e6b476eb425505b7b3e6eba30","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1774419955,"firstTxDate":"2026-03-25","walletAgeDays":76,"totalTransactions":2000,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":2000,"totalUsdcIn":67700.75,"totalUsdcOut":43615.97,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":1,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":53,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs","Significant USDC flow: $111,317","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-06-09T22:56:47.155Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":30506.37,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xeebde7a0e019a63e6b476eb425505b7b3e6eba30","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":39621.72,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":29,"largestWithdrawal":4649.23,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-03-25","fetchedAt":"2026-06-09T22:56:47.544Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 76 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $39,622 in / $0 out across 29 withdrawal tx since 2026-03-25.","3100 total trades across 63 markets.","94 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 35.9% — needs improvement.","Skill: 21/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 92/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -124.0% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2030 RES=0.0255 UNC=0.1412.","Log loss: 1.0351 (skill: -126.9% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.262","High luck component: 92/100 — returns may not persist","Brier Skill Score: -124.0% — performing worse than naive baseline","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Net loss: -$6422 total PnL","Low win rate: 17%","PnL divergence: $30506 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 63 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns","On-chain: $39,622 total USDC.e received from Polymarket contracts across 29 tx (Polygon)"],"scoredAt":"2026-06-09T22:56:48.529Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":true,"ageFactor":0.2912219521231971,"reason":"Wallet age 76d → difficulty factor 0.29","ageDaysUsed":76}}