{"wallet":"0xf02fd365a731fd3a9a2f079a0e26337ce59b1ed8","displayName":"Superficial-Micronutrient","pseudonym":"Superficial-Micronutrient","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":377686.87,"totalPnl":-544741.59,"realizedPnl":718.42,"unrealizedPnl":-545460.01,"winRate":0.002,"openPositions":22,"resolvedBets":978,"uniqueMarkets":953},"calibration":1,"profitability":0,"consistency":78,"discipline":95,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":56,"trustScore":43,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":978,"description":"D/43 ± 3 (high confidence, 978 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.05504722222222222,"totalBets":72,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.05504722222222222,"error":0.05504722222222222},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.15084523809523814,"totalBets":84,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.023809523809523808,"expectedRate":0.15084523809523814,"error":0.12703571428571434},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2527607843137254,"totalBets":102,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.2527607843137254,"error":0.2527607843137254},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3509833333333333,"totalBets":72,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3509833333333333,"error":0.3509833333333333},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.45602195121951233,"totalBets":164,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.45602195121951233,"error":0.45602195121951233},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5382717171717175,"totalBets":198,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5382717171717175,"error":0.5382717171717175},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6487136363636364,"totalBets":88,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6487136363636364,"error":0.6487136363636364},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7454971428571429,"totalBets":70,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7454971428571429,"error":0.7454971428571429},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8641057142857143,"totalBets":70,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8641057142857143,"error":0.8641057142857143},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9450896551724136,"totalBets":58,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9450896551724136,"error":0.9450896551724136}],"brierScore":0.2978,"calibrationError":0.4822,"resolvedBets":978,"overconfidenceBias":0.4822,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":2.1,"luck":22.1,"edge":-63.13},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2949,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0.002},"brierSkillScore":-144.9098,"logLoss":0.8654,"logLossSkill":-57.8433,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xf02fd365a731fd3a9a2f079a0e26337ce59b1ed8","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1772191301,"firstTxDate":"2026-02-27","walletAgeDays":51,"totalTransactions":2000,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":20743.96,"totalUsdcOut":10996.96,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":53,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs","Significant USDC flow: $31,741","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T02:09:26.720Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":554488.59,"pnlVerified":false},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 51 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","3100 total trades across 953 markets.","978 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 48.2% — needs improvement.","Skill: 2/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 22/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -14491.0% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2949 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0020.","Log loss: 0.8654 (skill: -5784.3% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.482","Brier Skill Score: -14491.0% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Net loss: -$544742 total PnL","Low win rate: 0%","PnL divergence: $554489 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 953 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T02:09:27.013Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}