{"wallet":"0xf0b91693705267cfc6574cb7107d4480e08d63f4","displayName":"sdwfmc","pseudonym":"Reflecting-Controller","raw":{"totalTrades":1432,"totalVolume":3799.2,"totalPnl":-119.19,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":-119.19,"winRate":0,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":255,"uniqueMarkets":282},"calibration":8,"profitability":34,"consistency":64,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":36,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":255,"description":"D/36 ± 3 (high confidence, 255 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.010000000000000009,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.010000000000000009,"error":0.010000000000000009},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.13886986521604208,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.13886986521604208,"error":0.13886986521604208},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.26297398310324627,"totalBets":7,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.26297398310324627,"error":0.26297398310324627},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3438986854696794,"totalBets":19,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3438986854696794,"error":0.3438986854696794},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.46185839564193554,"totalBets":32,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.46185839564193554,"error":0.46185839564193554},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5516841106021039,"totalBets":36,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5516841106021039,"error":0.5516841106021039},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.648464187247325,"totalBets":56,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.648464187247325,"error":0.648464187247325},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7444114018276974,"totalBets":46,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7444114018276974,"error":0.7444114018276974},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8459391034167677,"totalBets":37,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8459391034167677,"error":0.8459391034167677},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9473766365036271,"totalBets":15,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9473766365036271,"error":0.9473766365036271}],"brierScore":0.4306,"calibrationError":0.6272,"resolvedBets":255,"overconfidenceBias":0.6272,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":17.1,"edge":-48.58},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.4298,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.7224,"logLoss":1.1646,"logLossSkill":-146.2827,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":1.8,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":2}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xf0b91693705267cfc6574cb7107d4480e08d63f4","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1776304152,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-16","walletAgeDays":4,"totalTransactions":2040,"uniqueCounterparties":2,"inboundTxCount":40,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":4660.62,"totalUsdcOut":4049.99,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":40,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":80,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.95,"medianTxIntervalSec":2734,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":38,"provenanceGrade":"D","flags":["Very new wallet: 4 days old — possible sybil","Limited counterparties: only 2 unique addresses","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Wash trading signal: 95% of txs with single counterparty"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2040 txs","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:28:22.938Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":729.82,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xf0b91693705267cfc6574cb7107d4480e08d63f4","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":2779.58,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":109,"largestWithdrawal":137.55,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-17","fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:28:27.422Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 4 days, 2040 txs, provenance grade D. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 80/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $2,780 in / $0 out across 109 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-17.","1432 total trades across 282 markets.","255 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 62.7% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 17/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -72.2% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.4298 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 1.1646 (skill: -14628.3% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 1.8 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Weak Brier score: 0.4306","Overconfidence bias: 0.627","Brier Skill Score: -72.2% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Net loss: -$119 total PnL","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","On-chain: wallet only 4 days old on Polygon","On-chain: wash trading signal — 95% of txs with single counterparty"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 282 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T03:28:27.576Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}