{"wallet":"0xf1addd3c7e01df23c3258ec690bbef8896546979","displayName":"Blushing-Chandelier","pseudonym":"Blushing-Chandelier","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":14306.36,"totalPnl":-180.77,"realizedPnl":586.35,"unrealizedPnl":-767.11,"winRate":0.154,"openPositions":122,"resolvedBets":65,"uniqueMarkets":67},"calibration":9,"profitability":37,"consistency":60,"discipline":96,"sampleSize":75,"liveEdge":53,"trustScore":41,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"medium","margin":8,"resolvedBets":65,"description":"D/41 ± 8 (medium confidence, 65 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.04480000000000001,"totalBets":9,"correctBets":3,"actualRate":0.3333333333333333,"expectedRate":0.04480000000000001,"error":0.2885333333333333},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.1411023308768447,"totalBets":8,"correctBets":3,"actualRate":0.375,"expectedRate":0.1411023308768447,"error":0.2338976691231553},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2699246181673638,"totalBets":5,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.2699246181673638,"error":0.2699246181673638},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.34337173439720725,"totalBets":5,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.34337173439720725,"error":0.34337173439720725},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4527278202606609,"totalBets":12,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.08333333333333333,"expectedRate":0.4527278202606609,"error":0.36939448692732757},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5351948028168563,"totalBets":13,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.07692307692307693,"expectedRate":0.5351948028168563,"error":0.45827172589377935},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6204805000337662,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.5,"expectedRate":0.6204805000337662,"error":0.1204805000337662},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7458667424171702,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7458667424171702,"error":0.7458667424171702},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8263669668705148,"totalBets":3,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8263669668705148,"error":0.8263669668705148}],"brierScore":0.2831,"calibrationError":0.3902,"resolvedBets":65,"overconfidenceBias":0.2527,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":17.5,"luck":26.3,"edge":-83.73},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.1839,"resolution":0.0269,"uncertainty":0.1302},"brierSkillScore":-1.1751,"logLoss":0.8166,"logLossSkill":-0.902,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":1.2,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":1}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xf1addd3c7e01df23c3258ec690bbef8896546979","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1772567953,"firstTxDate":"2026-03-03","walletAgeDays":47,"totalTransactions":2996,"uniqueCounterparties":30,"inboundTxCount":996,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":2000,"totalUsdcIn":20425.62,"totalUsdcOut":11727.98,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":996,"botScore":40,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.04,"medianTxIntervalSec":18,"burstTxCount":181,"provenanceScore":68,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Possible automated trading: 181 burst txs"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2996 txs","Significant USDC flow: $32,154","Diverse trading network: 30 counterparties"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T02:08:35.586Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":8878.41,"pnlVerified":false},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 47 days, 2996 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 40/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","3100 total trades across 67 markets.","65 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 39.0% — needs improvement.","Skill: 18/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 26/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -117.5% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.1839 RES=0.0269 UNC=0.1302.","Log loss: 0.8166 (skill: -90.2% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 1.2 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.253","Brier Skill Score: -117.5% — performing worse than naive baseline","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Net loss: -$181 total PnL","Low win rate: 15%","PnL divergence: $8878 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows","On-chain: possible automated trading (bot score: 40)"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 67 unique markets","On-chain: diverse counterparty network"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T02:08:37.172Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}