{"wallet":"0xf1ee4842fa0c7283632185e42577027452d4519c","displayName":"Jimmyman132","pseudonym":"Scary-Billboard","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":132687.91,"totalPnl":-54599.63,"realizedPnl":1116.78,"unrealizedPnl":-55716.41,"winRate":0,"openPositions":4,"resolvedBets":626,"uniqueMarkets":346},"calibration":24,"profitability":0,"consistency":81,"discipline":78,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":56,"trustScore":47,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":626,"description":"D/47 [CI95: D→D, 46-48] (626 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":46,"scoreHigh":48,"gradeLow":"D","gradeHigh":"D","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":false}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.05192,"totalBets":20,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.05192,"error":0.05192},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.14935238095238093,"totalBets":42,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.14935238095238093,"error":0.14935238095238093},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.25659999999999994,"totalBets":44,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.25659999999999994,"error":0.25659999999999994},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.34442500000000004,"totalBets":72,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.34442500000000004,"error":0.34442500000000004},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4475948275862068,"totalBets":116,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4475948275862068,"error":0.4475948275862068},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5438200000000002,"totalBets":130,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5438200000000002,"error":0.5438200000000002},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6483465116279068,"totalBets":86,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6483465116279068,"error":0.6483465116279068},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7449642857142857,"totalBets":56,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7449642857142857,"error":0.7449642857142857},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8481052631578949,"totalBets":38,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8481052631578949,"error":0.8481052631578949},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9359727272727273,"totalBets":22,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9359727272727273,"error":0.9359727272727273}],"brierScore":0.3011,"calibrationError":0.5053,"resolvedBets":626,"overconfidenceBias":0.5053,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":37,"edge":-77.59},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.3002,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.2043,"logLoss":0.8389,"logLossSkill":-105.0905,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xf1ee4842fa0c7283632185e42577027452d4519c","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1771931886,"firstTxDate":"2026-02-24","walletAgeDays":126,"totalTransactions":2000,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":7685.19,"totalUsdcOut":7418.35,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":58,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs","Significant USDC flow: $15,104","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-07-01T08:19:11.963Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":54866.47,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xf1ee4842fa0c7283632185e42577027452d4519c","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":4937.31,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":150,"largestWithdrawal":214.14,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-02-26","fetchedAt":"2026-07-01T08:20:03.286Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 126 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $4,937 in / $0 out across 150 withdrawal tx since 2026-02-26.","3100 total trades across 346 markets.","626 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 50.5% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 37/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -20.4% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.3002 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.8389 (skill: -10509.1% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.505","Brier Skill Score: -20.4% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Net loss: -$54600 total PnL","Low win rate: 0%","PnL divergence: $54866 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 346 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-07-01T08:20:04.056Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":true,"ageFactor":0.431701784460021,"reason":"Wallet age 119d → difficulty factor 0.43","ageDaysUsed":119}}