{"wallet":"0xf27d40745542dc871e127acff3a1c9d3910d9a88","displayName":"Extra-Small-Implement","pseudonym":"Extra-Small-Implement","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":7991.15,"totalPnl":-44186.72,"realizedPnl":186.58,"unrealizedPnl":-44373.3,"winRate":0,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":1000,"uniqueMarkets":106},"calibration":9,"profitability":0,"consistency":51,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":18,"trustGrade":"F","trustTier":"DANGER","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":1000,"description":"F/18 [CI95: F→F, 17-19] (1000 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":17,"scoreHigh":19,"gradeLow":"F","gradeHigh":"F","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":false}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.012163940520446061,"totalBets":538,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.012163940520446061,"error":0.012163940520446061},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9870298701298718,"totalBets":462,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9870298701298718,"error":0.9870298701298718}],"brierScore":0.4502,"calibrationError":0.4626,"resolvedBets":1000,"overconfidenceBias":0.4626,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":4.5,"luck":14.9,"edge":-2.88},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.4502,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.8007,"logLoss":2.03,"logLossSkill":-255.7256,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xf27d40745542dc871e127acff3a1c9d3910d9a88","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1775730487,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-09","walletAgeDays":97,"totalTransactions":2000,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":16541.73,"totalUsdcOut":16379.44,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":58,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs","Significant USDC flow: $32,921","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-07-15T15:44:34.181Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":44349.01,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xf27d40745542dc871e127acff3a1c9d3910d9a88","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":11804.82,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":209,"largestWithdrawal":139.99,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-18","fetchedAt":"2026-07-15T15:45:14.366Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 97 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $11,805 in / $0 out across 209 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-18.","3100 total trades across 106 markets.","1000 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 46.3% — needs improvement.","Skill: 5/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 15/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -80.1% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.4502 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 2.0300 (skill: -25572.6% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Weak Brier score: 0.4502","Overconfidence bias: 0.463","Brier Skill Score: -80.1% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Penny-lottery strategy: 54% of bets at sub-$0.10 — score penalized by 15 pts","Net loss: -$44187 total PnL","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","PnL divergence: $44349 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 106 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns","On-chain: $11,805 total USDC.e received from Polymarket contracts across 209 tx (Polygon)"],"scoredAt":"2026-07-15T15:45:16.732Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":true,"ageFactor":0.3335719682457463,"reason":"Wallet age 87d → difficulty factor 0.33","ageDaysUsed":87}}