{"wallet":"0xf3531b23b504cf0aed4ff21325232b2a2d496685","displayName":"Aed4Ff","pseudonym":"Rash-Alternative","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":59189.87,"totalPnl":-186.95,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":-186.95,"winRate":0,"openPositions":18,"resolvedBets":115,"uniqueMarkets":108},"calibration":30,"profitability":39,"consistency":96,"discipline":83,"sampleSize":88,"liveEdge":50,"trustScore":52,"trustGrade":"C","trustTier":"DEVELOPING","confidence":{"level":"medium","margin":8,"resolvedBets":115,"description":"C/52 ± 8 (medium confidence, 115 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.044399999999999995,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.044399999999999995,"error":0.044399999999999995},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.16010000000000002,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.16010000000000002,"error":0.16010000000000002},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4863377352572987,"totalBets":48,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4863377352572987,"error":0.4863377352572987},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5152038632142598,"totalBets":62,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5152038632142598,"error":0.5152038632142598},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6734,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6734,"error":0.6734},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.774,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.774,"error":0.774}],"brierScore":0.2514,"calibrationError":0.4955,"resolvedBets":115,"overconfidenceBias":0.4955,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0.5,"luck":7.8,"edge":-98.92},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2512,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.0056,"logLoss":0.6937,"logLossSkill":-86.733,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0.2,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xf3531b23b504cf0aed4ff21325232b2a2d496685","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1774934813,"firstTxDate":"2026-03-31","walletAgeDays":21,"totalTransactions":2998,"uniqueCounterparties":30,"inboundTxCount":998,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":2000,"totalUsdcIn":20254.51,"totalUsdcOut":18737.18,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":998,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.04,"medianTxIntervalSec":276,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":63,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Young wallet: only 21 days old","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2998 txs","Significant USDC flow: $38,992","Human-like transaction patterns","Diverse trading network: 30 counterparties"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-21T21:41:54.991Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":1704.28,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xf3531b23b504cf0aed4ff21325232b2a2d496685","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":18256.51,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":63,"largestWithdrawal":412.77,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-03-31","fetchedAt":"2026-04-21T21:48:52.374Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 21 days, 2998 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $18,257 in / $0 out across 63 withdrawal tx since 2026-03-31.","3100 total trades across 108 markets.","115 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 49.5% — needs improvement.","Skill: 1/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 8/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -0.6% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2512 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.6937 (skill: -8673.3% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.495","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Net loss: -$187 total PnL","Low win rate: 0%"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 108 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns","On-chain: diverse counterparty network","On-chain: $18,257 total USDC.e received from Polymarket contracts across 63 tx (Polygon)"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-21T21:48:59.232Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}