{"wallet":"0xf3a710078c35b891cc0ce98c1badaa023a4f2fd8","displayName":"alwaysLastInLife","pseudonym":"Fickle-Riverbed","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":50582.12,"totalPnl":45009.02,"realizedPnl":58394.79,"unrealizedPnl":-13385.77,"winRate":0,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":406,"uniqueMarkets":104},"calibration":32,"profitability":100,"consistency":78,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":58,"trustGrade":"C","trustTier":"DEVELOPING","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":406,"description":"C/58 [CI95: C→C, 57-59] (406 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":57,"scoreHigh":59,"gradeLow":"INS","gradeHigh":"INS","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":true}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.07343636363636363,"totalBets":22,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.07343636363636363,"error":0.07343636363636363},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.1550787878787879,"totalBets":66,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.1550787878787879,"error":0.1550787878787879},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2513656250000001,"totalBets":64,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.2513656250000001,"error":0.2513656250000001},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3447678571428571,"totalBets":56,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3447678571428571,"error":0.3447678571428571},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4380285714285715,"totalBets":28,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4380285714285715,"error":0.4380285714285715},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5495333333333333,"totalBets":42,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5495333333333333,"error":0.5495333333333333},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6509444444444445,"totalBets":36,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6509444444444445,"error":0.6509444444444445},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.74489375,"totalBets":32,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.74489375,"error":0.74489375},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8488473684210525,"totalBets":38,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8488473684210525,"error":0.8488473684210525},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9244,"totalBets":22,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9244,"error":0.9244}],"brierScore":0.2708,"calibrationError":0.4494,"resolvedBets":406,"overconfidenceBias":0.4494,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":6.1,"luck":20.1,"edge":-55.74},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2701,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.0833,"logLoss":0.7796,"logLossSkill":-97.5955,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xf3a710078c35b891cc0ce98c1badaa023a4f2fd8","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1774874932,"firstTxDate":"2026-03-30","walletAgeDays":28,"totalTransactions":3000,"uniqueCounterparties":4,"inboundTxCount":1000,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":2000,"totalUsdcIn":18083.03,"totalUsdcOut":13860.65,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":1000,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":80,"topCounterpartyConcentration":1,"medianTxIntervalSec":158,"burstTxCount":1,"provenanceScore":53,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Young wallet: only 28 days old","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Wash trading signal: 100% of txs with single counterparty"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 3000 txs","Significant USDC flow: $31,944","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-28T08:35:19.335Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":40786.64,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xf3a710078c35b891cc0ce98c1badaa023a4f2fd8","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":13283.03,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":30,"largestWithdrawal":678.67,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-01","fetchedAt":"2026-04-28T08:35:18.945Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 28 days, 3000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 80/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $13,283 in / $0 out across 30 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-01.","3100 total trades across 104 markets.","406 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 44.9% — needs improvement.","Skill: 6/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 20/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -8.3% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2701 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.7796 (skill: -9759.5% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.449","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","PnL divergence: $40787 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows","On-chain: wash trading signal — 100% of txs with single counterparty","young_wallet: Wallet is only 26 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)"],"greenFlags":["Net profitable: +$45009 total PnL","Well-diversified: 104 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns","On-chain: $13,283 total USDC.e received from Polymarket contracts across 30 tx (Polygon)"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-28T08:35:24.793Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":false,"ageFactor":0,"reason":"Wallet is only 26 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)","ageDaysUsed":26}}