{"wallet":"0xf4c4aa5c09121f746f5c44f86c6c4b1220d9206d","displayName":"frog-purple","pseudonym":"Deafening-Peasant","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":40865.33,"totalPnl":44275.93,"realizedPnl":60885.16,"unrealizedPnl":-16609.23,"winRate":0,"openPositions":4,"resolvedBets":358,"uniqueMarkets":90},"calibration":19,"profitability":100,"consistency":60,"discipline":77,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":51,"trustScore":61,"trustGrade":"C","trustTier":"DEVELOPING","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":358,"description":"C/61 [CI95: C→C, 59-63] (358 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":59,"scoreHigh":63,"gradeLow":"INS","gradeHigh":"INS","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":true}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.049978571428571435,"totalBets":56,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.049978571428571435,"error":0.049978571428571435},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.15747241379310345,"totalBets":58,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.15747241379310345,"error":0.15747241379310345},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.23434761904761908,"totalBets":42,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.23434761904761908,"error":0.23434761904761908},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.33731250000000007,"totalBets":16,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.33731250000000007,"error":0.33731250000000007},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.45138,"totalBets":20,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.45138,"error":0.45138},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5421285714285715,"totalBets":14,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5421285714285715,"error":0.5421285714285715},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.66564,"totalBets":20,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.66564,"error":0.66564},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7547466666666668,"totalBets":30,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7547466666666668,"error":0.7547466666666668},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8557263157894738,"totalBets":38,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8557263157894738,"error":0.8557263157894738},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9567718749999999,"totalBets":64,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9567718749999999,"error":0.9567718749999999}],"brierScore":0.3534,"calibrationError":0.4846,"resolvedBets":358,"overconfidenceBias":0.4846,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":1.8,"luck":28.7,"edge":-18.63},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.3527,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.4136,"logLoss":1.1359,"logLossSkill":-142.6563,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xf4c4aa5c09121f746f5c44f86c6c4b1220d9206d","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1776397064,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-17","walletAgeDays":8,"totalTransactions":2000,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":20808.93,"totalUsdcOut":19731.81,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":48,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Young wallet: only 8 days old","Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs","Significant USDC flow: $40,541","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-25T08:23:27.921Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":43198.81,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xf4c4aa5c09121f746f5c44f86c6c4b1220d9206d","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":19313.36,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":137,"largestWithdrawal":815.84,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-17","fetchedAt":"2026-04-25T08:23:28.019Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 8 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $19,313 in / $0 out across 137 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-17.","3100 total trades across 90 markets.","358 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 48.5% — needs improvement.","Skill: 2/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 29/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -41.4% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.3527 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 1.1359 (skill: -14265.6% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Weak Brier score: 0.3534","Overconfidence bias: 0.485","Brier Skill Score: -41.4% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Low win rate: 0%","PnL divergence: $43199 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows","young_wallet: Wallet is only 8 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)"],"greenFlags":["Net profitable: +$44276 total PnL","Well-diversified: 90 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns","On-chain: $19,313 total USDC.e received from Polymarket contracts across 137 tx (Polygon)"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-25T08:23:28.219Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":false,"ageFactor":0,"reason":"Wallet is only 8 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)","ageDaysUsed":8}}