{"wallet":"0xf613d20d8ede6f4705a1288e6d2f668b1c78b2d4","displayName":"kindlydeIta","pseudonym":"Fruitful-Hovercraft","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":31763.72,"totalPnl":-32205.11,"realizedPnl":-1729.93,"unrealizedPnl":-30475.18,"winRate":0.024,"openPositions":12,"resolvedBets":504,"uniqueMarkets":149},"calibration":1,"profitability":0,"consistency":67,"discipline":87,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":26,"trustScore":29,"trustGrade":"F","trustTier":"DANGER","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":504,"description":"F/29 ± 3 (high confidence, 504 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.07085714285714287,"totalBets":28,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.07142857142857142,"expectedRate":0.07085714285714287,"error":0.0005714285714285561},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.1456785714285714,"totalBets":28,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.1456785714285714,"error":0.1456785714285714},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.25450303030303034,"totalBets":66,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.25450303030303034,"error":0.25450303030303034},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.34777941176470584,"totalBets":68,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.34777941176470584,"error":0.34777941176470584},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4548759999999998,"totalBets":50,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.04,"expectedRate":0.4548759999999998,"error":0.4148759999999998},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.550326923076923,"totalBets":52,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.038461538461538464,"expectedRate":0.550326923076923,"error":0.5118653846153846},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6495189189189189,"totalBets":74,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6495189189189189,"error":0.6495189189189189},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7510763157894738,"totalBets":76,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.02631578947368421,"expectedRate":0.7510763157894738,"error":0.7247605263157896},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8542809523809523,"totalBets":42,"correctBets":4,"actualRate":0.09523809523809523,"expectedRate":0.8542809523809523,"error":0.759042857142857},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9292200000000002,"totalBets":20,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9292200000000002,"error":0.9292200000000002}],"brierScore":0.3158,"calibrationError":0.4871,"resolvedBets":504,"overconfidenceBias":0.4871,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":1.7,"luck":50.7,"edge":-93.34},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2935,"resolution":0.0009,"uncertainty":0.0232},"brierSkillScore":-12.5882,"logLoss":0.8748,"logLossSkill":-6.7753,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xf613d20d8ede6f4705a1288e6d2f668b1c78b2d4","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1774525857,"firstTxDate":"2026-03-26","walletAgeDays":27,"totalTransactions":2834,"uniqueCounterparties":30,"inboundTxCount":834,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":35103.81,"totalUsdcOut":25674.16,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":834,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":20,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.88,"medianTxIntervalSec":522,"burstTxCount":4,"provenanceScore":63,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Young wallet: only 27 days old","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2834 txs","Significant USDC flow: $60,778","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-22T18:51:08.886Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":41634.76,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xf613d20d8ede6f4705a1288e6d2f668b1c78b2d4","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":4744.16,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":154,"largestWithdrawal":138.66,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-03-26","fetchedAt":"2026-04-22T18:51:03.910Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 27 days, 2834 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 20/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $4,744 in / $0 out across 154 withdrawal tx since 2026-03-26.","3100 total trades across 149 markets.","504 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 48.7% — needs improvement.","Skill: 2/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 51/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -1258.8% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2935 RES=0.0009 UNC=0.0232.","Log loss: 0.8748 (skill: -677.5% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.487","Brier Skill Score: -1258.8% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Weak live edge: open positions mostly underwater","Net loss: -$32205 total PnL","Low win rate: 2%","PnL divergence: $41635 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 149 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-22T18:51:11.278Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}