{"wallet":"0xf850de6a5ee0a6161c6230af4e9b463f2cd96788","displayName":"538340122","pseudonym":"Velvety-Semicolon","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":34384.82,"totalPnl":19154.06,"realizedPnl":30650.29,"unrealizedPnl":-11496.23,"winRate":0,"openPositions":8,"resolvedBets":306,"uniqueMarkets":126},"calibration":23,"profitability":100,"consistency":73,"discipline":90,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":34,"trustScore":57,"trustGrade":"C","trustTier":"DEVELOPING","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":306,"description":"C/57 ± 3 (high confidence, 306 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.08496666666666668,"totalBets":12,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.08496666666666668,"error":0.08496666666666668},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.1541833333333333,"totalBets":24,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.1541833333333333,"error":0.1541833333333333},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.24998636363636353,"totalBets":44,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.24998636363636353,"error":0.24998636363636353},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.347292857142857,"totalBets":28,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.347292857142857,"error":0.347292857142857},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.447345,"totalBets":40,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.447345,"error":0.447345},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5484526315789474,"totalBets":38,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5484526315789474,"error":0.5484526315789474},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6506454545454546,"totalBets":44,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6506454545454546,"error":0.6506454545454546},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7500450000000002,"totalBets":40,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7500450000000002,"error":0.7500450000000002},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8498454545454546,"totalBets":22,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8498454545454546,"error":0.8498454545454546},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9257857142857143,"totalBets":14,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9257857142857143,"error":0.9257857142857143}],"brierScore":0.312,"calibrationError":0.5048,"resolvedBets":306,"overconfidenceBias":0.5048,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":14.7,"edge":-51.95},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.3112,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.248,"logLoss":0.8648,"logLossSkill":-108.3678,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xf850de6a5ee0a6161c6230af4e9b463f2cd96788","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1774873806,"firstTxDate":"2026-03-30","walletAgeDays":22,"totalTransactions":3000,"uniqueCounterparties":4,"inboundTxCount":1000,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":2000,"totalUsdcIn":22335.07,"totalUsdcOut":18406.22,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":1000,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":80,"topCounterpartyConcentration":1,"medianTxIntervalSec":70,"burstTxCount":1,"provenanceScore":53,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Young wallet: only 22 days old","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Wash trading signal: 100% of txs with single counterparty"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 3000 txs","Significant USDC flow: $40,741","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-21T21:29:21.385Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":15225.21,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xf850de6a5ee0a6161c6230af4e9b463f2cd96788","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":16635.07,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":35,"largestWithdrawal":778.43,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-01","fetchedAt":"2026-04-21T21:29:21.081Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 22 days, 3000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 80/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $16,635 in / $0 out across 35 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-01.","3100 total trades across 126 markets.","306 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 50.5% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 15/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -24.8% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.3112 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.8648 (skill: -10836.8% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.505","Brier Skill Score: -24.8% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Low win rate: 0%","PnL divergence: $15225 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows","On-chain: wash trading signal — 100% of txs with single counterparty"],"greenFlags":["Net profitable: +$19154 total PnL","Well-diversified: 126 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns","On-chain: $16,635 total USDC.e received from Polymarket contracts across 35 tx (Polygon)"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-21T21:29:27.807Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}