{"wallet":"0xf89315c2b06de3a1b26e083eeb4bf3efe820f47d","displayName":"Easy-Going-Second","pseudonym":"Easy-Going-Second","raw":{"totalTrades":380,"totalVolume":3632.02,"totalPnl":-604.51,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":-604.51,"winRate":0,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":39,"uniqueMarkets":54},"calibration":30,"profitability":7,"consistency":74,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":60,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":39,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"low","margin":15,"resolvedBets":39,"description":"D/39 [CI95: D→D, 37-41] (39 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":37,"scoreHigh":41,"gradeLow":"INS","gradeHigh":"INS","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":true}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.277966459286883,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.277966459286883,"error":0.277966459286883},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.344363516343439,"totalBets":5,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.344363516343439,"error":0.344363516343439},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.45371144926009294,"totalBets":18,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.45371144926009294,"error":0.45371144926009294},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5490761560998509,"totalBets":8,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5490761560998509,"error":0.5490761560998509},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.624438288320692,"totalBets":5,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.624438288320692,"error":0.624438288320692},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7329002720752964,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7329002720752964,"error":0.7329002720752964}],"brierScore":0.2523,"calibrationError":0.491,"resolvedBets":39,"overconfidenceBias":0.491,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":1.1,"luck":31.1,"edge":-77.89},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2516,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.0093,"logLoss":0.7001,"logLossSkill":-87.539,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":3.1,"earlyMoverPct":0.103,"timelinessScore":7}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xf89315c2b06de3a1b26e083eeb4bf3efe820f47d","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1780390271,"firstTxDate":"2026-06-02","walletAgeDays":28,"totalTransactions":402,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":2,"totalUsdcIn":88,"totalUsdcOut":88,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":33,"provenanceGrade":"D","flags":["Young wallet: only 28 days old","Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Active on-chain: 402 txs","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-06-30T15:40:14.072Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":604.51,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xf89315c2b06de3a1b26e083eeb4bf3efe820f47d","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":0,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":0,"largestWithdrawal":0,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"never","fetchedAt":"2026-06-30T15:40:13.929Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 28 days, 402 txs, provenance grade D. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.","380 total trades across 54 markets.","39 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 49.1% — needs improvement.","Skill: 1/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 31/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -0.9% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2516 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.7001 (skill: -8753.9% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 3.1 days before resolution, 10% early mover."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.491","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Net loss: -$605 total PnL","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","young_wallet: Wallet is only 0 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 54 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-06-30T15:40:14.076Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":false,"ageFactor":0,"reason":"Wallet is only 0 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)","ageDaysUsed":0}}