{"wallet":"0xf9c44f10affb761e5516cded3deddde122c9ed5b","displayName":"12rics","pseudonym":"Guilty-Donut","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":10773.97,"totalPnl":-419.67,"realizedPnl":-74.37,"unrealizedPnl":-345.3,"winRate":0,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":222,"uniqueMarkets":236},"calibration":54,"profitability":32,"consistency":80,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":88,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":49,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":222,"description":"D/49 ± 3 (high confidence, 222 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.18524032581438268,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.18524032581438268,"error":0.18524032581438268},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.251628903826125,"totalBets":14,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.251628903826125,"error":0.251628903826125},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.36711171115223157,"totalBets":32,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.36711171115223157,"error":0.36711171115223157},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.45654362598485426,"totalBets":131,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.45654362598485426,"error":0.45654362598485426},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5299965989167703,"totalBets":37,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5299965989167703,"error":0.5299965989167703},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.636105811155908,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.636105811155908,"error":0.636105811155908}],"brierScore":0.2018,"calibrationError":0.4413,"resolvedBets":222,"overconfidenceBias":0.4413,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":7,"luck":47.4,"edge":-130.39},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2011,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":0.1929,"logLoss":0.5928,"logLossSkill":-73.9715,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0.2,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xf9c44f10affb761e5516cded3deddde122c9ed5b","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1774437699,"firstTxDate":"2026-03-25","walletAgeDays":27,"totalTransactions":2474,"uniqueCounterparties":30,"inboundTxCount":474,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":2000,"totalUsdcIn":21053.79,"totalUsdcOut":20093.93,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":474,"botScore":10,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.05,"medianTxIntervalSec":280,"burstTxCount":24,"provenanceScore":63,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Young wallet: only 27 days old","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2474 txs","Significant USDC flow: $41,148","Human-like transaction patterns","Diverse trading network: 30 counterparties"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-21T21:30:07.263Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":1379.53,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xf9c44f10affb761e5516cded3deddde122c9ed5b","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":18430.17,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":116,"largestWithdrawal":1695.61,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-03-25","fetchedAt":"2026-04-21T21:31:05.885Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 27 days, 2474 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 10/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $18,430 in / $0 out across 116 withdrawal tx since 2026-03-25.","3100 total trades across 236 markets.","222 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 44.1% — needs improvement.","Skill: 7/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 47/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: 19.3% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2011 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.5928 (skill: -7397.2% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.441","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Net loss: -$420 total PnL","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market"],"greenFlags":["Brier Skill Score: 19.3% better than naive baseline","Well-diversified: 236 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns","On-chain: diverse counterparty network","On-chain: $18,430 total USDC.e received from Polymarket contracts across 116 tx (Polygon)"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-21T21:31:06.514Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}