{"wallet":"0xfb0f17657c9c24293b918adb86362a4d8fc90b02","displayName":"aoe2gamer","pseudonym":"Nice-Prejudice","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":13050.44,"totalPnl":0,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":0,"winRate":0,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":125,"uniqueMarkets":132},"calibration":35,"profitability":40,"consistency":37,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":88,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":39,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"medium","margin":8,"resolvedBets":125,"description":"D/39 ± 8 (medium confidence, 125 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.08525859715786177,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.08525859715786177,"error":0.08525859715786177},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.16778888063051905,"totalBets":5,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.16778888063051905,"error":0.16778888063051905},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.26389482980100787,"totalBets":12,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.26389482980100787,"error":0.26389482980100787},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.35041576764392457,"totalBets":30,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.35041576764392457,"error":0.35041576764392457},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.44735978084742156,"totalBets":25,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.44735978084742156,"error":0.44735978084742156},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5412561502072543,"totalBets":24,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5412561502072543,"error":0.5412561502072543},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6389868711053662,"totalBets":17,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6389868711053662,"error":0.6389868711053662},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7623298369045987,"totalBets":3,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7623298369045987,"error":0.7623298369045987},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8478576925216559,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8478576925216559,"error":0.8478576925216559},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9478211924071942,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9478211924071942,"error":0.9478211924071942}],"brierScore":0.2457,"calibrationError":0.4644,"resolvedBets":125,"overconfidenceBias":0.4644,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":4.3,"luck":18.3,"edge":-102.94},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2448,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":0.0173,"logLoss":0.6991,"logLossSkill":-87.4122,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0.3,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xfb0f17657c9c24293b918adb86362a4d8fc90b02","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1774980171,"firstTxDate":"2026-03-31","walletAgeDays":19,"totalTransactions":2998,"uniqueCounterparties":30,"inboundTxCount":998,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":2000,"totalUsdcIn":5609.17,"totalUsdcOut":3814.38,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":998,"botScore":30,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.05,"medianTxIntervalSec":12,"burstTxCount":1,"provenanceScore":58,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Young wallet: only 19 days old","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Possible automated trading: 1 burst txs"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2998 txs","Diverse trading network: 30 counterparties"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T04:36:36.163Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":null,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xfb0f17657c9c24293b918adb86362a4d8fc90b02","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":681.87,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":3,"largestWithdrawal":607.57,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-03-31","fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T04:41:19.022Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 19 days, 2998 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 30/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $682 in / $0 out across 3 withdrawal tx since 2026-03-31.","3100 total trades across 132 markets.","125 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 46.4% — needs improvement.","Skill: 4/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 18/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: 1.7% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2448 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.6991 (skill: -8741.2% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.464","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","On-chain: possible automated trading (bot score: 30)"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 132 unique markets","On-chain: diverse counterparty network"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T04:41:19.025Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}