{"wallet":"0xfdbcdfc44661219c65825d7237b0f85768ab4f0a","displayName":"Pungent-Wick","pseudonym":"Pungent-Wick","raw":{"totalTrades":2868,"totalVolume":7563.47,"totalPnl":-82.1,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":-82.1,"winRate":0,"openPositions":2,"resolvedBets":494,"uniqueMarkets":993},"calibration":5,"profitability":38,"consistency":62,"discipline":75,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":100,"trustScore":51,"trustGrade":"C","trustTier":"DEVELOPING","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":494,"description":"C/51 ± 3 (high confidence, 494 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.050506690526605696,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.050506690526605696,"error":0.050506690526605696},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.1548909273597088,"totalBets":7,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.1548909273597088,"error":0.1548909273597088},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.26481368830374435,"totalBets":13,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.26481368830374435,"error":0.26481368830374435},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3518911626566884,"totalBets":42,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3518911626566884,"error":0.3518911626566884},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.45823242111694457,"totalBets":62,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.45823242111694457,"error":0.45823242111694457},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5525254000563306,"totalBets":64,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5525254000563306,"error":0.5525254000563306},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6486119400547816,"totalBets":88,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6486119400547816,"error":0.6486119400547816},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7458090248437802,"totalBets":92,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7458090248437802,"error":0.7458090248437802},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8505968662613907,"totalBets":66,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8505968662613907,"error":0.8505968662613907},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9524528754733481,"totalBets":56,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9524528754733481,"error":0.9524528754733481}],"brierScore":0.4575,"calibrationError":0.6446,"resolvedBets":494,"overconfidenceBias":0.6446,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":21.6,"edge":-36.56},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.4567,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.8299,"logLoss":1.3075,"logLossSkill":-164.3551,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":4,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":4}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xfdbcdfc44661219c65825d7237b0f85768ab4f0a","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1775037393,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-01","walletAgeDays":18,"totalTransactions":2293,"uniqueCounterparties":4,"inboundTxCount":293,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1998,"totalUsdcIn":5910.48,"totalUsdcOut":5531.28,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":4,"contractInteractions":293,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":80,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.85,"medianTxIntervalSec":1456,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":53,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Young wallet: only 18 days old","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Wash trading signal: 85% of txs with single counterparty"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2293 txs","Significant USDC flow: $11,442","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:19:20.075Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":461.3,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xfdbcdfc44661219c65825d7237b0f85768ab4f0a","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":4999.73,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":203,"largestWithdrawal":100.28,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-01","fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:19:19.724Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 18 days, 2293 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 80/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $5,000 in / $0 out across 203 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-01.","2868 total trades across 993 markets.","494 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 64.5% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 22/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -83.0% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.4567 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 1.3075 (skill: -16435.5% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 4.0 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Weak Brier score: 0.4575","Overconfidence bias: 0.645","Brier Skill Score: -83.0% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Low win rate: 0%","On-chain: wash trading signal — 85% of txs with single counterparty"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 993 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T03:19:25.799Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}