{"wallet":"0xfe1df98e4d09160ed0d66c38113d3d764be37eff","displayName":"vanff8scas","pseudonym":"Filthy-Alternative","raw":{"totalTrades":43,"totalVolume":429.51,"totalPnl":0.07,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":0.07,"winRate":0.487,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":39,"uniqueMarkets":43},"calibration":20,"profitability":40,"consistency":0,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":60,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":0,"trustGrade":"F","trustTier":"DANGER","confidence":{"level":"low","margin":15,"resolvedBets":39,"description":"F/0 ± 15 (low confidence, 39 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.010000000000000004,"totalBets":36,"correctBets":16,"actualRate":0.4444444444444444,"expectedRate":0.010000000000000004,"error":0.4344444444444444},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9899999999999999,"totalBets":3,"correctBets":3,"actualRate":1,"expectedRate":0.9899999999999999,"error":0.01000000000000012}],"brierScore":0.4022,"calibrationError":0.4018,"resolvedBets":39,"overconfidenceBias":-0.4018,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":15.3,"luck":19.5,"edge":-242.49},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.1742,"resolution":0.0219,"uncertainty":0.2498},"brierSkillScore":-0.6097,"logLoss":1.8952,"logLossSkill":-1.7355,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":8.8,"earlyMoverPct":0.059,"timelinessScore":11}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xfe1df98e4d09160ed0d66c38113d3d764be37eff","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1773654607,"firstTxDate":"2026-03-16","walletAgeDays":34,"totalTransactions":2035,"uniqueCounterparties":30,"inboundTxCount":323,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1691,"totalUsdcIn":8429.61,"totalUsdcOut":8388.14,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":23,"contractInteractions":323,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.06,"medianTxIntervalSec":5998,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":68,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2035 txs","Significant USDC flow: $16,818","Human-like transaction patterns","Diverse trading network: 30 counterparties"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:15:21.420Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":41.4,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xfe1df98e4d09160ed0d66c38113d3d764be37eff","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":5291.02,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":531,"largestWithdrawal":10,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-03-16","fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:15:20.021Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 34 days, 2035 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $5,291 in / $0 out across 531 withdrawal tx since 2026-03-16.","43 total trades across 43 markets.","39 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 40.2% — needs improvement.","Skill: 15/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 20/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -61.0% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.1742 RES=0.0219 UNC=0.2498.","Log loss: 1.8952 (skill: -173.6% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 8.8 days before resolution, 6% early mover."],"flags":["Weak Brier score: 0.4022","Brier Skill Score: -61.0% — performing worse than naive baseline","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Penny-lottery strategy: 92% of bets at sub-$0.10 — score penalized by 30 pts","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","On-chain coverage gap: 531 Polymarket USDC withdrawals observed, but only 39 resolved bets recovered from data-api + CLOB. Grade based on a subset of the wallet's forecasting history."],"greenFlags":["Conservative (underconfident) bias","Net profitable: +$0 total PnL","Well-diversified: 43 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns","On-chain: diverse counterparty network"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T03:15:22.333Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}