When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 1 | 2% | 0% | 1.8% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 1 | 13% | 0% | 13.0% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 1 | 25% | 0% | 25.0% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 1 | 35% | 0% | 35.0% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 4 | 45% | 0% | 44.9% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 3 | 52% | 0% | 51.6% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 5 | 65% | 0% | 64.6% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 5 | 75% | 0% | 75.0% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 8 | 85% | 0% | 85.3% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 3 | 94% | 0% | 93.7% |
On-chain verification: wallet age 21 days, 2372 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 50/100.
2000 total trades across 561 markets.
32 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 64.7% — needs improvement.
Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 16/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -89.7% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.4737 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 1.3158 (skill: -16540.0% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
Timeliness: avg entry 3.1 days before resolution, 0% early mover.
No demonstrated forecasting skill. This trader performs at or below random chance based on available data.
Confidence: F/34 ± 15 (low confidence, 32 resolved bets). Low confidence — take this score with a grain of salt until more markets resolve.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.