When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 262 | 4% | 0% | 4.0% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 88 | 14% | 0% | 14.1% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 64 | 25% | 0% | 24.7% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 54 | 34% | 0% | 34.3% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 42 | 45% | 5% | 40.2% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 36 | 55% | 6% | 49.6% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 44 | 66% | 0% | 65.5% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 46 | 75% | 0% | 75.1% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 74 | 85% | 0% | 85.1% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 288 | 96% | 0% | 95.7% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 84 days, 2834 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 30/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $481 in / $0 out across 51 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-16.
3100 total trades across 744 markets.
998 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 49.5% — needs improvement.
Skill: 1/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 16/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -9811.2% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.3913 RES=0.0002 UNC=0.0040.
Log loss: 1.3288 (skill: -4986.7% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
No demonstrated forecasting skill. This trader performs at or below random chance based on available data.
Confidence: F/33 [CI95: F→F, 32-34] (998 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.