When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 8 | 7% | 0% | 6.9% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 45 | 17% | 0% | 16.8% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 97 | 26% | 0% | 25.7% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 137 | 36% | 0% | 35.5% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 105 | 45% | 0% | 44.7% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 55 | 55% | 0% | 54.7% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 25 | 65% | 0% | 64.9% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 15 | 76% | 0% | 76.3% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 8 | 86% | 0% | 85.6% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 2 | 94% | 0% | 93.9% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 12 days, 3000 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 100/100, wash trading score: 80/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $2,074 in / $3,370 out across 216 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-13.
3100 total trades across 518 markets.
497 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 39.2% — needs improvement.
Skill: 13/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 17/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: 27.9% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.1796 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 0.5493 (skill: -6847.3% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
Timeliness: avg entry 0.7 days before resolution, 0% early mover.
This trader shows some skill signal, but not enough to clearly distinguish from luck. More data needed.
Confidence: C/50 [CI95: D→C, 49-51] (497 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.