VIGIL: jackinv1lvl2 scored D/46

jackinv1lvl2

0x629da223adfc9957329e02de95ae3d263f92756c

Polymarket Trader

RISKY

Below-average risk profile. Proceed with caution.

D

46 / 100

VIGIL Dimensions

Calibration

24

Profitability

0

Consistency

79

Discipline

89

Sample Size

100

Live Edge

72

Raw Metrics

Total PnL

$-754670.75

Win Rate

0%

Resolved Bets

986

Total Trades

3100

Volume

$147573

Markets

246

Brier Score

0.2993

Open Positions

14

Brier Skill

-19.7%

Log Loss

0.846

Calibration Analysis

When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.

Bucket	Bets	Expected	Actual	Error
0.00-0.10	38	6%	0%	6.4%
0.10-0.20	64	15%	0%	14.7%
0.20-0.30	88	25%	0%	25.4%
0.30-0.40	126	35%	0%	35.4%
0.40-0.50	198	45%	0%	45.1%
0.50-0.60	144	55%	0%	55.2%
0.60-0.70	134	65%	0%	64.5%
0.70-0.80	88	74%	0%	74.4%
0.80-0.90	66	84%	0%	84.3%
0.90-1.00	40	95%	0%	94.5%

Calibration Error: 50.0%

Reliability (CAL)

0.2985

Lower = better calibrated

Resolution (RES)

0.0000

Higher = stronger opinions

Brier Skill Score

-19.7%

vs naive baseline

Log Loss

0.8455

Skill: -10592.9% vs naive — sensitive to rare events

Signals

✓ Strong live edge: 14 open positions trending profitable

✓ Well-diversified: 246 unique markets

✓ On-chain: $14,165 total USDC.e received from Polymarket contracts across 45 tx (Polygon)

⚠ Overconfidence bias: 0.500

⚠ Brier Skill Score: -19.7% — performing worse than naive baseline

⚠ Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions

⚠ Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected

⚠ Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address

⚠ Net loss: -$754671 total PnL

⚠ Low win rate: 0%

⚠ PnL divergence: $759682 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows

⚠ On-chain: bot-like trading patterns detected (bot score: 60)

On-Chain Verification (Polygon)

Wallet Age

85d

Txns on Base

2923

Counterparties

24

USDC In

$57049

USDC Out

$52038

Provenance

B (63)

Protocols: USDC.e (Bridged)

PnL divergence: $759682.39 gap between API and on-chain USDC

✓ Heavy on-chain activity: 2923 txs

✓ Significant USDC flow: $109,087

⚠ Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction

⚠ Bot-like behavior detected: 171 burst txs, median interval 8s

Reasoning

On-chain verification: wallet age 85 days, 2923 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 60/100, wash trading score: 20/100.

Polymarket on-chain coverage: $14,165 in / $0 out across 45 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-06.

3100 total trades across 246 markets.

986 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.

Calibration error: 50.0% — needs improvement.

Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 24/100 (higher = more volatile returns).

Brier Skill Score: -19.7% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).

Brier decomposition: REL=0.2985 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.

Log loss: 0.8455 (skill: -10592.9% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.

What Does D/46 Mean?

Below average. The data shows poor calibration, thin evidence, or both. When this trader expresses high confidence, events don't happen at the rate they imply.

Confidence: D/46 [CI95: D→D, 45-47] (986 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.

Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.

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